The Bracket Project Blog

Vacation!

2012-02-08T18:38:00.000-08:00

I'm taking a short 10-day vacation so there won't be any updates while I'm gone. Look for a matrix update on February 18 and new NCAA and NIT brackets on President's Day.

In the meantime, use the links page and the matrix page and check out everybody's brackets the old-fashioned way.

Bracket - February 6

2012-02-06T19:56:00.000-08:00

Check out the matrix here.

Full bracket here. Next bracket is scheduled to be published February 20 along with the return of NIT projections (fair warning: as good as I may be at NCAA projections, I'm as equally bad at the NIT).
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, Missouri
2 - Michigan State, Baylor, Kansas, North Carolina
3 - Georgetown, Duke, Florida, UNLV
4 - Marquette, Florida State, St. Mary's (CA), Creighton
5 - Wisconsin, Murray State, San Diego State, Indiana
6 - Wichita State, Michigan, Louisville, Virginia
7 - Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Southern Miss, Vanderbilt
8 - Memphis, Temple, New Mexico, West Virginia
9 - St. Louis, Iowa State, Alabama, Harvard
10 - Connecticut, California, Illinois, Kansas State
11 - Minnesota, BYU, Notre Dame, Texas
12 - Middle Tennessee, Purdue, Long Beach State, Miami, Fla.
13 - Arizona, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Xavier, Iona, Cleveland State
14 - Akron, Oral Roberts, Belmont, Davidson
15 - Drexel, Nevada, Bucknell, Weber State,
16 - Texas-Arlington, NC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Norfolk State, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State

Bracket - January 30

2012-01-30T21:09:00.000-08:00

Bracket right here (there's a couple of places where the principles probably aren't followed...I'm sure you can find them). Don't forget to check the matrix.

Seed list for games thru January 29:

1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, Baylor
2 - Duke, Missouri, Kansas, North Carolina
3 - Michigan State, Creighton, Florida, UNLV
4 - St. Mary's (CA), Marquette, Murray State, Georgetown
5 - Wisconsin, Virginia, San Diego State, Indiana
6 - Michigan, Gonzaga, Florida State, Wichita State
7 - Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Louisville
8 - California, Kansas State, Memphis, Harvard
9 - Temple, New Mexico, Connecticut, Southern Miss
10 - Alabama, Saint Louis, Illinois, Middle Tennessee
11 - Seton Hall, BYU, Purdue, Texas
12 - Long Beach State, Iona, Minnesota, Iowa State
13 - Oral Roberts, Xavier, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Colorado State
14 - Cleveland State, Akron, Nevada, Belmont
15 - Davidson, Bucknell, George Mason, Weber State
16 - Texas-Arlington, Norfolk State, LIU-Brooklyn, NC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State

Bracket - January 23

2012-01-24T00:03:00.000-08:00

Bracket link is right below this line. Seed list below.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/012312.pdf

Be sure to check out the matrix, which now contains 50 brackets!

1 - Kentucky, Missouri, Syracuse, Ohio State
2 - Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Baylor
3 - Georgetown, Michigan State, Murray State, UNLV
4 - Indiana, Creighton, San Diego State, Florida
5 - Marquette, St. Mary's (CA), Kansas State, Virginia
6 - Florida State, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Michigan
7 - Mississippi State, Gonzaga, Wichita State, West Virginia
8 - Illinois, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Seton Hall
9 - California, Dayton, Memphis, Harvard
10 - St. Louis, Temple, New Mexico, Louisville
11 - Middle Tennessee, Purdue, Southern Miss, BYU
12 - Xavier, Minnesota, Long Beach State, Texas
13 - Iona, Oral Roberts, Iowa State, Northwestern, North Carolina State, Cincinnati
14 - Nevada, Belmont, Akron, Davidson
15 - Bucknell, Weber State, George Mason, Texas-Arlington
16 - Norfolk State, Valparaiso, LIU-Brooklyn, NC-Asheville, Boston University, Mississippi Valley State

Bracket - January 16

2012-01-17T01:10:00.000-08:00

Here's my first bracket of the year. Don't get all worked up about it...there's still 8 weeks left.

Seed list reflects games thru Sunday the 15th.

1 - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke
2 - North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State, Kansas
3 - Indiana, Michigan State, Georgetown, Connecticut
4 - Florida, Murray State, Virginia, UNLV
5 - Creighton, San Diego State, Michigan, Marquette
6 - Seton Hall, Mississippi State, St. Mary's (CA), Illinois
7 - Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas State, Alabama
8 - Wisconsin, Wichita State, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
9 - New Mexico, California, Memphis, Northwestern
10 - Purdue, Southern Miss, Harvard, BYU
11 - Temple, Florida State, St. Louis, Iona
12 - Oral Roberts, Texas, Dayton, Middle Tennessee
13 - Xavier, Long Beach State, Minnesota, Marshall, Iowa State, Northern Iowa
14 - New Mexico State, Akron, Belmont, Davidson
15 - Weber State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Bucknell, George Mason
16 - Texas Arlington, Norfolk State, NC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State

Bracket:

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/011612.pdf

BCS 2011

2011-12-04T17:41:00.001-08:00

Time for the annual BCS post. While LSU and Alabama are deserving, who's to say that Oklahoma State or Stanford would not have been equally compelling opponents? The ideal way to solve this is a playoff. However, I'm afraid we're years away from this. In the meantime, I'd really like to see a plus-one. This is how I'd see such a system implemented while keeping the BCS structure in place.

Even having the top 4 play each other sounds too much like a playoff so you have to work with what you've got.

1. Promote the Cotton Bowl to BCS status. This will keep the 10 team system the BCS currently has.
2. The champion from each of the BCS conferences receives an automatic berth.
3. The highest ranked non-BCS conference champion (or Notre Dame) will receive an automatic berth provided it is ranked higher than the lowest ranked BCS conference champion. If this lowest ranked team is unranked in the BCS, then the non-BCS team (or Notre Dame) must be ranked in the top 25.
4. Fill out the rest of the lineup with the highest ranked teams remaining in BCS order. Ignore the two-team limit per conference.
5. Pull out the Pac-12 and Big 10 champions and place them in the Rose Bowl (keeps them happy).
6. The top 4 teams remaining will play each other. The highest ranked of these 4 will play the lowest ranked team of these 4 that avoids a rematch. Then the remaining two teams will play each other. The same will apply to the bottom 4 teams.
7. Once matchups are determined, assign them to bowls. Apply conference affiliations (Big 12-Fiesta, ACC-Orange, SEC-Sugar) with the remaining game to the Cotton Bowl. If a bowl needs to give up a conference affiliated with them to another bowl, that bowl will have priority over the Cotton Bowl.
8. Play the games!
9. After the games are played, run the BCS system one more time and pit the top 2 teams against each other for a BCS champion.

How would it work this year?

This year's BCS conference champions were 1. LSU (SEC), 3. Oklahoma State (Big 12), 5. Oregon (Pac-12), 10. Wisconsin (Big 10), 15. Clemson (ACC), and 23. West Virginia (Big East)

18. TCU is the highest-ranked non-BCS conference champion, is ranked higher than West Virginia, and in the top 25. It gets an automatic berth.

The three remaining slots go to the highest-ranked BCS teams remaining: 2. Alabama, 4. Stanford, and 6. Arkansas.

As a result, these matchups are formed and matched with the following bowls.

Rose: 5. Oregon (Pac-12) vs. 10. Wisconsin (Big 10)
Sugar: 1. LSU (SEC) vs. 4. Stanford
Fiesta: 2. Alabama vs. 3. Oklahoma State (Big 12)
Cotton: 6. Arkansas vs. 23. West Virginia (Big East)
Orange: 15. Clemson (ACC) vs. 18. TCU

Look! We have a seeded plus-one! Plus, the rest of the teams are deserving (being in the top 6 or by winning their conference). Playoffs are great.

The 2011-12 Bracket Matrix Links

2011-11-10T21:28:00.001-08:00

All the links used in the Bracket Matrix for 2011-12 are listed below.

New contributors who want to be added should contact me.

The Bracket Project - BP

ESPN - Joe Lunardi
CBS - Jerry Palm
Rivals - Mike Huguenin
Sporting News - Ryan Fagan
Sports Illustrated - Andy Glockner
Yahoo Sports! - Brad Evans

1-3-1 Sports
5 Borough Sports - 5B
68 & 16 College Sportscast
96 Madness - 96M
ASN College Bracketology
Average at Best - AAB
Basketball Predictions - BaP
Big Underdog - BU
Bleacher Report - Jesse Kramer (BR-JK), Jay McAnany (BR-JM), Jonathan Goodman (BR-JG), Jordan Schwartz (BR-JS)
SB Nation's Blogging the Bracket - SBN
Brack Attack - BA
BracKENTology
The Bracket Board - TBB
Bracket Mensa - BM
Bracket Predictions - BrP
Bracketville - BV
Bracketville USA - BUSA
Brad-ketology
Busting Bracketologists - CJ
Busting Brackets - Bust
Busting the Bracket - BtBr
College Hoops Net - CHN
College Sports Vault - CSV
Cracked Sidewalks - CS
Daily Bracket - DB
The D-World Society - DW
Howard Salwasser's Bracket Watch - BW
Ivar's Bracketology
Jabesblog
Kurt's Bracket
Kyle's Bracket Projections
March 24/7
March Madness '12 - MM12
M+J's NCAA Basketball Bracket Watch - MJ
Oak Creek's March Madness
Prime Time Bracketology - HTTV
The Quantitative Prognosticator
Rainmaker's Bracketology
Random Nerd Bracketology - RN
RFS Bracket Science
Rock M Nation
Rush the Court
smssportsreport
The Sports Bank - TSB
The Washington Post - Eric Prisbell (WP)
White and Blue Review - Bluejay Banter Bracketology (BBB) and The Bracketeer (WBR-B)

2012 March Madness - MM
Beer's Bracket
Bracket WAG
Coolpohle's Bracketology - CP
Crashing the Dance - CtD
Crimson Cast - CC
Dre's Mock Bracket
Feature Presentation Online - FPO
Hatch Rankings
The Hoops Report - THR
Hoosierguy1019's Bracketology
Lobofan2003's Bracketology
MAG's Bracket Projections
Roundball Chat - RBC
CSS Sports' School of Hard Knox - CSS
Seed Madness
SportsRatings - SR
VTS Bracketmaker
Warren Nolan - WN
The Washington Times - Patrick Stevens

Welcome Back! 2011-12 Edition

2011-11-03T22:01:00.000-07:00

Next week marks the beginning of a brand new season of college basketball and another edition of The Bracket Project. My first bracket projection won't be released until November 28 but watch out for the first release of the matrix on November 7.

If you want to contribute, please read this:

1. You need to set up a web site to place your bracket that will be consistent throughout the season. A blog will do. A web site will most definitely do. A bracket posted on a message board will not do. The link will change frequently and will get lost in various discussions, making it difficult for the average reader to find it. (Exception: A message board devoted exclusively to bracketology.) Also, you can't post it on Facebook or some other social networking site because not everyone can access it.

2. You have to tell me where your site is. I don't have a sixth sense when it comes to finding these things. I rely on you and readers like you to tell me what kind of sites to add to this page.

3. The NCAA sets up procedures and principles for building a bracket. Read them! A seriously flawed bracket won't be posted. However, if your seedings are out of the norm, I'll still most likely post it provided that the principles are followed and you have an explanation as to why you've built the bracket like you did. I reserve the right to not post a bracket with something like a winless team as a #1 seed.

4. Please date-stamp your bracket. Brackets of a certain age will be removed from the list, and if there's no date-stamp, obviously I can't tell when your bracket was updated.

5. To make it easier on me, please format your bracket so that at least half of it can be seen on the screen at any one time. You can make it even easier for me by publishing a seed list of your 68 teams. Brackets must have at least 48 seeded teams to be listed in the matrix. Sites that merely list teams with no seeding can be linked to the page but will not be added to the matrix. To be listed in the final matrix of the season, you must have all 68 seeded teams.

6. No new sites will be added to the 2012 page after March 1, 2012 unless you appear in the rankings page (linked to the side), in which case, you will be grandfathered in. In addition, no bracket will be accepted to the final matrix of the season after the beginning of the Selection Sunday show.

7. Link to my site! I've linked to yours!

8. I'm only one guy. If this could pay me what I get at my regular job, I'd update this site 24/7. That simply is not the case. If someone else can do this better, I'll gladly step aside, but from the looks of it, I'm the only (crazy) one. So if you don't see your site on here, an update hasn't been done for a while or I don't respond to you, I hope you'll understand why.

The Bracket Project Predictions - 2011

2011-03-15T12:29:00.000-07:00

Here are my predictions for this year's bracket.

Clemson, USC, UNC-Asheville and UTSA are my First Four winners.

My final four consists of Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Texas with KU over OSU for the championship.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/Bracket%20Project%20Prediction%20-%202011.pdf

The Bracket Matrix Results - 2011

2011-03-13T23:07:00.000-07:00

Bracketologists - Please check the matrix and double-check your scores in case I made a mistake. I did just look at 89 brackets today.

Congratulations to Jordan Schwartz at FOX Sports for having the highest Paymon score among all bracketologists this year. He was the only one to miss one team in the bracket (nobody had a perfect bracket).

Bracket Facts, 68&16 Sportscast, Ivar, and Ryan had the most teams seeded correctly at 38 out of 68.

Countdown to March had the most teams seeded within one at 59 out of 68.

The average Paymon score (3 points for each team picked, 2 points for each team seeded correctly, and 1 point for each teams seeded within one) was 311.6. Joe Lunardi and his team of bracketologists were slightly below average at 310.

Historical rankings will be updated ~~Monday~~ (edit: Wednesday at the latest).

Final NIT Bracket - 2011

2011-03-13T16:25:00.000-07:00

Here's the NIT bracket. Hope it doesn't turn out as bad as the NCAA prediction.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT031311FINAL.pdf

Final Bracket 2011

2011-03-13T12:11:00.000-07:00

Here it is. Read it and weep.

Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Duke are the top seeds. USC was the last team in over Alabama.

Watch for matrix updates all the way up to the selection show.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/031311%20-%20FINAL.pdf

NCAA + NIT Update - March 12

2011-03-12T10:26:00.000-08:00

For the NCAA bracket, I moved Penn State and Alabama into the bracket. I may waver a bit on Penn State tonight if they lose today and after that very slow and ugly win over Wisconsin (but hey, a win's a win right?). Falling out are St. Mary's and Boston College.

In the NIT, with the addition of two more automatics at the bottom, Drexel was the odd team out (UTEP left too as the CUSA rep in the NCAA, but Tulsa was left out of the NIT bracket).

One final bracket on Selection Sunday with matrix updates throughout the weekend are on tap.

NCAA - 3/12 for games thru 3/11:

1 - Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh
2 - Notre Dame, San Diego State, BYU, North Carolina
3 - Purdue, Texas, Syracuse, Louisville
4 - Kentucky, Florida, Wisconsin, Connecticut
5 - Georgetown, West Virginia, Arizona, St. John's
6 - UNLV, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Vanderbilt
7 - Xavier, George Mason, Texas A&M, Temple
8 - Washington, Villanova, Utah State, Old Dominion
9 - UCLA, Missouri, Marquette, Illinois
10 - Michigan State, Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan
11 - Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Tennessee
12 - Richmond, Georgia, Colorado, Penn State, Alabama, Belmont
13 - Harvard, Oakland, UTEP, Bucknell
14 - Morehead State, Long Island, Long Beach State, Kent State
15 - Indiana State, Wofford, St. Peter's, Northern Colorado
16 - NC-Asheville, Boston University, McNeese State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Hampton, Alabama State

NIT - 3/12 for games thru 3/11

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT031211.pdf

NCAA + NIT Update - March 11

2011-03-11T14:35:00.000-08:00

The only change in teams was UAB falling out after losing its first game in the CUSA tourney. Tulsa replaces them as the CUSA rep.

In the NIT, UAB joins there as the top seed pushing fellow conference team Memphis to the 2nd line. Memphis could still pass them since they're still alive. Dayton also joins too to replace Baylor and Minnesota.

A full NCAA bracket comes tomorrow and a final bracket on Selection Sunday with matrix updates throughout.

NCAA - 3/11 for games thru 3/10:

1 - Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Notre Dame
2 - Pittsburgh, San Diego State, BYU, North Carolina
3 - Purdue, Texas, Wisconsin, Syracuse
4 - Kentucky, Florida, Louisville, Connecticut
5 - Georgetown, West Virginia, Arizona, Xavier
6 - UNLV, Cincinnati, Kansas State, St. John's
7 - Vanderbilt, George Mason, Texas A&M, Temple
8 - Illinois, Villanova, Utah State, Old Dominion
9 - Washington, Missouri, Marquette, Florida State
10 - Michigan State, Butler, Gonzaga, UCLA
11 - Clemson, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Tennessee
12 - St. Mary's (CA), Georgia, Richmond, Boston College, Colorado, Belmont
13 - Harvard, Oakland, Tulsa, Bucknell
14 - Morehead State, Long Island, Long Beach State, Kent State
15 - Indiana State, Wofford, St. Peter's, Northern Colorado
16 - NC-Asheville, Boston University, McNeese State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

NIT - 3/11 for games thru 3/10

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT031111.pdf

NIT Bracket - March 9

2011-03-08T22:14:00.000-08:00

Just a quick update to reflect the inclusion of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and College of Charleston into the bracket. Other than that, it's largely unchanged from Monday's bracket since only two teams from the last bracket actually played. And those two teams I didn't find a compelling reason to move. Virginia Commonwealth still has a case for a NCAA at-large but has to wait for teams above them to lose. Princeton beat Penn and awaits a playoff against Harvard for the Ivy League championship.

I switched Missouri State and Wichita State after concluding that the regular season championship would carry more weight than WSU's better non-conference and road performance.

Since I have to include Milwaukee and Charleston, I had to kick out two teams. The at-large 7 seeds in the last bracket were Drexel, Tulsa, and Valparaiso. Iona was in the mix too since they lost to St. Peter's in the MAAC championship. In the end, I could only keep one and chose Drexel on the strength of their wins over Louisville on the road, Old Dominion, and VCU.

I'll re-assess the entire bracket on Friday. By that time, a lot more teams should have played a game.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030911.pdf

NCAA + NIT Brackets - March 7

2011-03-07T14:58:00.000-08:00

I kept Duke at the top line. I'm thinking only one Big East team will be on the top line and Duke has an easier path to the conference championship than Pittsburgh or Notre Dame.

I held my nose and picked Colorado as my last team in. Here's hoping that some bid thieves will materialize.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030711.pdf

I'm pretty intrigued by USC. Lots of good wins and bad losses, but the committee will probably gravitate toward the good wins. In the meantime, they're on the top line of the NIT along with Alabama, Colorado, and Penn State. 6 automatic qualifiers are currently in the field.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030711.pdf

Seeding Update + NIT Update - March 4

2011-03-04T14:00:00.000-08:00

Not much change in the NCAA bracket after seemingly all the bubble teams lost or did not play. Cleveland State replaces Southern Miss. The NIT bracket is below the NCAA seeding. Washington State, with wins over Washington and USC, joins NCAA has-beens Southern Miss, Colorado State, and Wichita State on the NIT top line.

1 - Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh
2 - Purdue, BYU, San Diego State, Notre Dame
3 - Texas, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Syracuse
4 - Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Florida
5 - West Virginia, Connecticut, Arizona, St. John's
6 - Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, George Mason
7 - Washington, Villanova, Texas A&M, Missouri
8 - Utah State, UNLV, Xavier, Temple
9 - Illinois, Marquette, Old Dominion, UCLA
10 - Michigan State, St. Mary's (CA), UAB, Florida State
11 - Tennessee, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Michigan
12 - Boston College, Butler, Gonzaga, Clemson, Richmond, Cleveland State
13 - Belmont, Missouri State, Oakland, Princeton
14 - College of Charleston, Bucknell, Fairfield, Long Beach State
15 - Coastal Carolina, LIU-Brooklyn, Vermont, Kent State
16 - Murray State, Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

NIT - 3/4/11

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030411.pdf

Bracket - February 28

2011-02-28T16:01:00.001-08:00

Note: Tuesday, March 1 is the deadline to contribute new sites to the matrix. If you've been in the matrix in years past, this deadline does not apply to you but you do need to let me know when you become active again. Thanks.

More shuffling after another tumultous weekend. Coming in are Michigan, after a road win over struggling Minnesota who falls out, and Boston College, which yo-yo's its way back in after a win over Virginia. They replace Colorado State after their loss to Air Force.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/022811.pdf

Guide to the Conference Tournaments

2011-02-27T11:26:00.000-08:00

I made a handy pdf of dates and times for the 30 conference championships this year. Check it out...conference tournaments start this Tuesday.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/Conference%20Tournaments%20-%202011.pdf

Seeding Update + NIT Bracket - February 26

2011-02-26T08:02:00.000-08:00

For any bracketologists out there, if you're not listed in this year's matrix list or on the rankings page, you have until March 1 to submit your bracket site to be included in the final matrix of the year.

Clemson, Gonzaga and Richmond moved into the bracket, pretty much for not losing, but the Zags got the biggest win with their road triumph over struggling St. Mary's. Moving out was Nebraska, Cleveland State and Boston College.

1 - Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh
2 - Texas, BYU, San Diego State, Purdue
3 - Wisconsin, Georgetown, Notre Dame, North Carolina
4 - Arizona, Syracuse, Louisville, Florida
5 - Connecticut, Kentucky, Villanova, Missouri
6 - St. John's, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Cincinnati
7 - George Mason, Washington, Texas A&M, UNLV
8 - Utah State, Xavier, Temple, Illinois
9 - Kansas State, Marquette, Michigan State, Old Dominion
10 - Tennessee, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, UCLA
11 - Florida State, St. Mary's, Clemson, Georgia
12 - UAB, Butler, Southern Miss, Colorado State, Gonzaga, Richmond
13 - Belmont, Wichita State, Harvard, Oakland
14 - College of Charleston, Bucknell, Fairfield, Vermont
15 - Long Beach State, Coastal Carolina, LIU-Brooklyn, Kent State
16 - Montana, Murray State, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

NIT - 2/26/11

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT022611.pdf

Bracket - February 21

2011-02-21T15:07:00.000-08:00

Memphis and Baylor suffered bad losses to Rice and Texas Tech respectively to fall out of the bracket. To replace them, Nebraska and Southern Miss move in. Right now, I think the CUSA will get two teams in, but it's a toss-up to pick which teams. If nobody takes control of the conference race, they'll become a one-bid league quickly. Nebraska's in with their big win over Texas. Winning 3 of their last 4 will help a lot.

With all the top teams losing last week, Ohio State remains the top seed with Kansas right behind.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/022111.pdf

Seeding Update + NIT Bracket - February 18

2011-02-18T14:12:00.000-08:00

Here's the seeding update for today. The NIT bracket link is below.

1 - Ohio State, Texas, Kansas, Pittsburgh
2 - Duke, BYU, San Diego State, Notre Dame
3 - Georgetown, Purudue, Wisconsin, Connecticut
4 - Arizona, Villanova, Florida, North Carolina
5 - Syracuse, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Louisville
6 - Missouri, West Virginia, Washington, St. John's
7 - George Mason, Texas A&M, Temple, Illinois
8 - Utah State, Xavier, UNLV, St. Mary's
9 - Cincinnati, Kansas State, Tennessee, Minnesota
10 - Virginia Tech, Marquette, UCLA, Florida State
11 - Michigan State, Old Dominion, Cleveland State, Colorado State
12 - UAB, Memphis
First Four At-larges - Butler, Georgia, Boston College, Baylor
13 - Belmont, Wichita State, Princeton, Oakland
14 - College of Charleston, Coastal Carolina, Vermont, Bucknell
15 - Fairfield, Montana, LIU-Brooklyn, Long Beach State
16 - Morehead State, Miami (OH)
First Four Qualifiers - Florida Atlantic, Hampton, Texas Southern, Texas State

NIT - 02/18/11

As usual, regular season conference champions who do not earn a NCAA bid get an automatic NIT bid. So consider teams seeded 7 or 8 in the linked bracket to be on the NIT bubble.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT021811.pdf

Bracket - February 14

2011-02-14T15:56:00.000-08:00

A couple of weeks ago, I was not happy with the way the bracket was ending up. Ugly was the word I used. Now, I think I'm pretty content about it. Sure, there a few teams that don't seem like they should belong but it's like that every year. This year, the problem is magnified by the need to add 3 extra at-large teams.

Butler, Boston College, Richmond, and Memphis constitute the at-large first four while Baylor is the first team out.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/021411.pdf

Seeding Update + NIT Bracket - February 11

2011-02-11T15:38:00.001-08:00

Here's today's seeding update with the NIT bracket link below.

1 - Ohio State, Kansas, Texas, Pittsburgh
2 - Duke, BYU, San Diego State, Notre Dame
3 - Georgetown, Villanova, Connecticut, Purdue
4 - Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Arizona
5 - North Carolina, Florida, Louisville, Missouri
6 - West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Illinois, Texas A&M
7 - Washington, St. Mary's (CA), UNLV, Cincinnati
8 - Utah State, George Mason, St. John's, Temple
9 - Minnesota, Xavier, Marquette, Tennessee
10 - Kansas State, Florida State, Michigan State, UCLA
11 - Clemson, Virginia Tech, UAB, Cleveland State
12 - Belmont, Old Dominion, Wichita State, Georgia
First Round Games - Duquesne, Colorado State, Richmond, Boston College
13 - Coastal Carolina, Oakland
14 - College of Charleston, Princeton, Bucknell, Vermont
15 - Fairfield, Kent State, Long Beach State, LIU-Brooklyn
16 - Murray State, Northern Colorado
First Round Games - Florida Atlantic, Hampton, Texas Southern, Northwestern State

For the NIT bracket, please keep in mind that regular season conference champions who do not win their conference tournament receive an automatic bid to the NIT.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT021111.pdf

Bracket - February 7

2011-02-07T19:19:00.000-08:00

It was actually pretty quiet at the top of the bracket, but the bottom is really falling out and now teams who just win are moving ever higher in the bracket.

I've got George Mason up to an 8 seed after a dominating win over Old Dominion on Saturday. That win is their only win against a top 50 team but they've won 9 in a row and will probably make it 10 before challenging games against James Madison and VCU. 7 seeds Utah State and St. Mary's are having an easy time against their Western opponents so it's a good thing they're facing each other in the ESPN Bracket Busters in a couple of weeks.

On the other end of the scale, Michigan State has lost 5 of their last 6 including an embarrassing 26-point loss to Wisconsin on Sunday. Some brackets have them out and even though I've still got them at an 11 seed, it'll be hard even to keep that position. Much improved Penn State is coming up followed by OSU, Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/020711.pdf

Seeding Update + NIT Bracket - February 4

2011-02-04T16:20:00.000-08:00

Today is the first day of NIT projections, gaining more popularity every year. These will be published on Fridays only along with a NCAA seeding update. Full NCAA brackets will only be published on Mondays.

Without further ado, here is the seeding update. The link for the NIT bracket is below the NCAA seeds.

1 - Ohio State, Kansas, Texas, Pittsburgh
2 - Duke, San Diego State, BYU, Connecticut
3 - Notre Dame, Kentucky, Purdue, Georgetown
4 - Villanova, Louisville, Missouri, Syracuse
5 - Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Arizona, Washington
6 - North Carolina, West Virginia, Minnesota, Florida
7 - Vanderbilt, Illinois, Cincinnati, St. Mary's (CA)
8 - Utah State, UNLV, Tennessee, Temple
9 - George Mason, Cleveland State, Marquette, St. John's
10 - Xavier, Wichita State, Duquesne, Kansas State
11 - Michigan State, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Florida State
12 - Belmont, Maryland, Old Dominion, Penn State/UCLA
13 - Gonzaga/Washington State, Harvard, Oakland, UTEP
14 - Coastal Carolina, Fairfield, Vermont, Bucknell
15 - Florida Atlantic, Long Beach State, LIU-Brooklyn, Austin Peay
16 - Northern Colorado, McNeese State, Bowling Green, Texas Southern, Chattanooga, Bethune-Cookman

For the NIT bracket, keep in mind that regular season conference champions who do not win their conference tournament get an automatic bid into the NIT. Usually, this takes up to 4-6 spots from the possible 32 teams.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT020411.pdf

Bracket - January 31

2011-01-31T16:56:00.001-08:00

In all honesty, this is a pretty ugly bracket. Let's just read it and move on. A seeding update is scheduled for Friday as is the first NIT bracket, which could be even messier.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/013111.pdf

Bracket - January 24

2011-01-24T18:40:00.000-08:00

San Diego State's undefeated season continues with its placement as the last #1 seed in my bracket joining Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and Duke. For those lucky enough to get CBS College Sports, this Wednesday's matchup against BYU figures to be the game of the year out west...at least until the rematch in one month.

Two mid-majors falling out of the bracket are Central Florida and Gonzaga. UCF looked poised to run away with the CUSA title until it lost its last 4 games, including two home games against East Carolina and Rice. Now the CUSA is a muddled mess. A team with as many as 6 losses in conference play could possibly claim the regular season title.

Gonzaga had a road trip to the SF Bay Area. It's a beautiful place so maybe the team was distracted with sightseeing. It certainly wasn't dominating opponents Santa Clara and USF like seasons past. Winning two of three against St. Mary's (twice) and Memphis seems like a must.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/012411.pdf

Bracket - January 17

2011-01-17T19:08:00.000-08:00

I watched a few games over the weekend waiting for football to show up and there were lots of opportunities for bubble teams to distinguish themselves with an upset victory. In the end, two teams made statements this week to get into this week's bracket: Florida State beat Duke and NC State while Colorado beat Kansas State and Oklahoma State (as well as Missouri). Both teams have a questionable loss that will keep them near the bubble but their schedules are manageable enough to keep up the momentum.

This bracket also reflects 11 teams from the Big East. Considering no conference has gotten more than 8 teams into the tournament, it's certainly a mark worth keeping track of during the course of the season.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/011711.pdf

Bracket - January 10

2011-01-10T18:56:00.000-08:00

So I was in DC for the past few days. Did I miss anything?

It was an upset-filled Saturday as many top teams fell. However, the top line stayed the same in this week's bracket and the second line had only one newbie, Purdue, now 4-0 in the Big Ten against middle-of-the-road competition. They have an interesting week with road games at Minnesota and West Virginia.

The notable team falling out of the bracket is Memphis. A 20-point loss to Tennessee shined the spotlight on the Tigers' middling resume so far. Three losses to top teams, its best win being a 4-point win at home vs. Miami, a 12 seed this week, and OT wins against Austin Peay and Arkansas State, also at home.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/011011.pdf

Scheduling Update

2011-01-06T17:15:00.000-08:00

I'll be in DC for a few days so no updates until Monday.

Starting Monday, I think I'll have a regular schedule in place for the rest of the season as follows:

Bracket Matrix:

Every Monday
Every Friday starting in February
Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday when needed
Saturdays are skipped except for the last Saturday of the regular season

Bracket Project:

NCAA: Full Bracket on Mondays, Seeding Updates on Fridays starting in February
NIT: Full Bracket on Fridays starting in February

Bracket - January 3

2011-01-03T15:33:00.000-08:00

A quick update today with a new matrix up shortly. Today marks the start of weekly updates to the Bracket Project and will become more frequent as we get closer to mid-March.

Top seeds have remained consistent with Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas filling out the top 3 spots. The last spot has been going to the top Big East team, which for this week is Syracuse.

The first round games involving at-large teams pit Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee and Florida State vs. USC.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/010311.pdf

Seeding Update - December 24

2010-12-24T11:18:00.000-08:00

As a Christmas Eve bonus, here's a seeding update for today. A full bracket will be released as scheduled on January 3.

1 - Duke, Ohio State, Kansas, Connecticut
2 - Syracuse, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Villanova
3 - Georgetown, Missouri, Kentucky, Kansas State
4 - Purdue, Michigan State, Baylor, Minnesota
5 - Texas, BYU, Tennessee, Notre Dame
6 - Memphis, Texas A&M, Illinois, Florida
7 - Central Florida, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Louisville
8 - UNLV, West Virginia, Temple, Washington
9 - Cleveland State, Washington State, Arizona, North Carolina
10 - Boston College, Butler, St. Mary's (CA), Old Dominion
11 - Northwestern, Drexel, Southern Miss, Oklahoma State
12 - Utah State, Miami (FLA), St. John's/California, Cincinnati/Gonzaga
13 - Wichita State, Princeton, UC Santa Barbara, Belmont
14 - North Texas, Furman, Quinnipiac, Coastal Carolina
15 - Fairfield, Austin Peay, American, IPFW
16 - Ohio, Weber State, Stephen F. Austin/Morgan State, Jackson State/Boston University

Update - December 20

2010-12-20T16:05:00.000-08:00

I'm celebrating my birthday today so a matrix update will have to wait until tomorrow. As a bonus, I'll have a seeding update as well.

Happy Holidays!

Bracket - December 6

2010-12-06T20:44:00.001-08:00

It's the first bracket of the year! Before anybody freaks out, remember it's still early. There's still 3 1/2 months worth of games remaining. If you don't see your favorite team, as long as they win, they'll eventually make the cut.

This year marks the first year of the "first four" where the last 4 at-large teams and 4 automatic qualifiers get to play in Dayton in the first round. In this bracket, I put Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Maryland, and Missouri State as the at-larges.

So check it out and the next bracket is scheduled to be released January 3.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/120610.pdf

BCS 2010

2010-12-05T20:53:00.000-08:00

Time for the annual BCS post. While Auburn and Oregon will make for a compelling championship game, who's to say that TCU, Stanford, or Wisconsin would not have been equally compelling opponents? The ideal way to solve this is a playoff. However, I'm afraid we're years away from this. In the meantime, I'd really like to see a plus-one. This is how I've been wishing such a system implemented.

Even having the top 4 play each other sounds too much like a playoff so you have to work with what you've got.

1. Promote the Cotton Bowl to BCS status. This will keep the 10 team system the BCS currently has.
2. The champion from each of the BCS conferences receives an automatic berth.
3. The highest ranked non-BCS conference champion (or Notre Dame) will receive an automatic berth provided it is ranked higher than the lowest ranked BCS conference champion. If this lowest ranked team is unranked in the BCS, then the non-BCS team (or Notre Dame) must be ranked in the top 25.
4. Fill out the rest of the lineup with the highest ranked teams remaining in BCS order. Ignore the two-team limit per conference.
5. Pull out the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions and place them in the Rose Bowl (keeps them happy).
6. The top 4 teams remaining will play each other. The highest ranked of these 4 will play the lowest ranked team of these 4 that avoids a rematch. Then the remaining two teams will play each other. The same will apply to the bottom 4 teams.
7. Once matchups are determined, assign them to bowls. Apply conference affiliations (Big 12-Fiesta, ACC-Orange, SEC-Sugar) with the remaining game to the Cotton Bowl. If a bowl needs to give up a conference affiliated with them to another bowl, that bowl will have priority over the Cotton Bowl.
8. Play the games!
9. After the games are played, run the BCS system one more time and pit the top 2 teams against each other for a BCS champion.

How would it work this year?

This year's BCS conference champions were 1. Auburn (SEC), 2. Oregon (Pac-10), 5. Wisconsin (Big Ten), 7. Oklahoma (Big 12), 13. Virginia Tech (ACC), and NR. Connecticut (Big East).

TCU is the highest-ranked non-BCS conference champion, is ranked higher than Connecticut, and in the top 25. It gets an automatic berth.

The three remaining slots go to the highest-ranked BCS teams remaining: 4. Stanford, 6. Ohio State and 8. Arkansas.

As a result, these matchups are formed and matched with the following bowls.

Rose: 2. Oregon (Pac-10) vs. 5. Wisconsin (Big 10)
Sugar: 1. Auburn (SEC) vs. 6. Ohio State
Fiesta: 7. Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. NR Connecticut
Orange: 8. Arkansas vs. 13. Virginia Tech (ACC)
Cotton: 3. TCU vs. 4. Stanford

All the matchups are slightly more compelling than the ones already chosen, even though they involve the same teams and Connecticut's still involved. Plus the top two after the BCS standings are run again would still play an extra game.

But hey, under this scenario, what if Wisconsin and Ohio State win? Shouldn't they get to play in the plus-one over the TCU/Stanford winner? See, the scenarios are endless. We should have a playoff bracket. We need to have a playoff.

Speaking of brackets, the first bracket for this season of The Bracket Project is released tomorrow.

First Matrix of 2010-11 posted

2010-11-29T22:51:00.000-08:00

The first matrix of the new season has been released. I've weeded out the preseason brackets so only 10 brackets are active. Expect that number to dramatically increase as we move forward into the season (you know, when people actually start caring).

My own first bracket will be released on December 6.

The Bracket Matrix - 2011

Want to contribute??? Read this! 2010-11 Edition

2010-11-29T22:35:00.000-08:00

1. You need to set up a web site to place your bracket that will be consistent throughout the season. A blog will do. A web site will most definitely do. A bracket posted on a message board will not do. The link will change frequently and will get lost in various discussions, making it difficult for the average reader to find it. (Exception: A message board devoted exclusively to bracketology.) Also, you can't post it on Facebook, Myspace, or some other social networking site because not everyone can access it.

2. You have to tell me where your site is. I don't have a sixth sense when it comes to finding these things. I rely on you and readers like you to tell me what kind of sites to add to this page.

3. The NCAA sets up procedures and principles for building a bracket. Read them! A seriously flawed bracket won't be posted. However, if your seedings are out of the norm, I'll still most likely post it provided that the principles are followed and you have an explanation as to why you've built the bracket like you did. I reserve the right to not post a bracket with something like a winless team as a #1 seed.

4. Please date-stamp your bracket. Brackets of a certain age will be removed from the list, and if there's no date-stamp, obviously I can't tell when your bracket was updated.

5. To make it easier on me, please format your bracket so that at least half of it can be seen on the screen at any one time. You can make it even easier for me by publishing a seed list of your 68 teams. Brackets must have at least 48 seeded teams to be listed in the matrix. Sites that merely list teams with no seeding can be linked to the page but will not be added to the matrix. To be listed in the final matrix of the season, you must have all 68 seeded teams.

6. No new sites will be added to the 2011 page after March 1, 2011 unless you appear in the rankings page (linked to the side), in which case, you will be grandfathered in. In addition, no bracket will be accepted to the final matrix of the season after the beginning of the Selection Sunday show.

7. Link to my site! I've linked to yours!

8. I'm only one guy. If this could pay me what I get at my regular job, I'd update this site 24/7. That simply is not the case. If someone else can do this better, I'll gladly step aside, but from the looks of it, I'm the only (crazy) one. So if you don't see your site on here, an update hasn't been done for a while or I don't respond to you, I hope you'll understand why.

The 2010-11 Bracket Matrix Links

2010-11-28T15:29:00.000-08:00

All the links used in the Bracket Matrix for 2010-11 are listed below.

The window for new contributors to join the matrix is now closed. Bracketologists who were in the matrix in years past can still join this year's matrix by contacting me.

The Bracket Project - BP

ESPN - Joe Lunardi
CBS - Jerry Palm
FOX Sports - Jordan Schwartz (also at Bleacher Report)
Rivals - Mike Huguenin
Sporting News - Ryan Fagan
Sports Illustrated - Andy Glockner
Yahoo Sports - Brad Evans

5 Borough Sports - 5B
68 & 16 College Sportscast
ASN College Bracketology
Basketball Predictions - BaP
BEISketbol
Bleacher Report - Ezra Amacher (BR-EA), Jesse Kramer (BR-JK), Jordan Schwartz (BR-JS)
Blogging the Bracket - BtB
Bluejay Banter Bracketology from White and Blue Review - BBB
Brack Attack
Brackentology - KENT
The Bracket Board - TBB
Bracket Facts
Bracket Madness - MAD
The Bracket Mensa - BM
Bracket Predictions - BrP
Bracketological Excellence - BE
Bracketology 101 - B101
Bracketville USA - BUSA
Brackonomics
Brad-ketology
Bucky's Bracket
Bulldog Brackets
Busting Bracketologists - Bryce and CJ
Busting the Bracket - BtBr
CHN Bracketology
Countdown to March - CM
The D-World Society - DW
Daily Bracket - DB
The Honest Charlatan - HC
Howard Salwasser's Bracket Watch - BW
Jabesblog
Jeff D Lowe's Bracketology - JDL
Kentucky Sports Online - KSO
Kerrance James - KJ
Kurt's NCAA Bracket Projection
March 24/7
March Madness '11 - MM11
NCAA Bubble Trouble - NBT
Oak Creek's March Madness
Prime Time Bracketology - PTB
The Quantitative Prognosticator
Rainmaker's Bracketology
RFS Bracket Science
Rock M Nation
Rush the Court - Zach Hayes
Ryan's Bracketology
The Sports Bank - TSB
SportsRatings - SR
Steve's Bracketology
The 68 from the Washington Post - WP
Whiskatology
Zoukmaster's NCAA Bracketology

2011 March Madness - MM
Beer's Bracket
Shelby's Bracket WAG
Bracketography - Graph
Bracketville - BV
Brendan Cox's Bracketology - BC
Chandler's Bracketology
Collegesports-fans.com
Coolpohle's Bracketology - CP
The Columbus Dispatch - Bill Rabinowitz
Crashing the Dance - CtD
D1scourse - D1
DB's Space - DBS
Feature Presentation Online - FPO
Hoopville
Ivar's Sports
LAOJoe Bracketology
Lobofan2003's Bracketology
MAG NCAA Tournament Projections
My San Antonio - Stephen Fontenot - SA
Online Sports Fanatic - Daniel Evans
Real Time RPI
RPI Forecast
Schmolik 64
Seed Madness
SportsMeasures
The Hoops Report - Ryan Feldman - THR
VTS Bracket
Warren Nolan - WN

Welcome back!

2010-11-08T18:16:00.000-08:00

It's November so that means it's the start of another season here at the Bracket Project.

The big change is the addition of three new teams in the tournament for a grand total of 68. How this will affect things is anybody's guess but the NCAA has released the new principles and procedures so you can read them here.

The first bracket and the first edition of the Bracket Matrix will come out November 29. All sites which have been listed in prior years on the matrix can submit their brackets anytime during the year. New sites must notify me by March 1 to be included in the Selection Sunday matrix. My expectations can be found on the current matrix page.

Breathing a Sigh of Relief

2010-04-22T09:37:00.000-07:00

According to the press release from the NCAA, CBS and Turner, the NCAA tournament will undergo an expansion to 68 teams starting next year. This is a good move, especially in comparison to the looming 96-team concept. I'm sure years down the road, 96 teams will be a good idea, but not today. Not when the 65-team bracket was fine the way it was.

No official word yet on any format changes, but with 68 teams, presumably the bottom 8 teams (the 15 and 16 seeds of today) will have to play on opening round day, which is still unfair since they qualified for the tourney while a middle-of-the-road major conference team that barely makes it in gets to play in the "real" tournament.

With the basketball tournament moving forward relatively unchanged, we can move on to presentation. They're adding three networks (TNT, TBS, and truTV, which used to be Court TV if I'm not mistaken) to cover the tourney so that every game is televised. My hope is that CBS will continue to produce the tourney a la the Masters when ESPN televises the early rounds. Watching Turner personalities cover a tournament where they don't even show any regular-season games is a bad idea.

The Bracket Project takes a break

2010-04-05T20:38:00.000-07:00

Congrats to Duke for winning the 2010 championship. I'll be back in November to re-start the site but will pop up every now and then to keep track of any news involving the NCAA tournament including expansion.

Until then...

96 Teams: The Schedule's All Wrong

2010-04-02T10:11:00.000-07:00

Judging from the news conference held by Greg Shaheen and the NCAA, an expansion to 96 teams seems like a certainty. The only question would be will it happen after the NCAA opts out of its contract this year or after its contract expires in three years.

But for something they claimed to have studied since 2004, how could they get the schedule of the tournament so wrong? Shaheen lays it out this way. In total, it would stay in the footprint of the existing 65-team tournament but additional games would be played in the weekdays between the first and second weekends.

So if it were held this year, here's your schedule:

March 18-19: Round of 96
March 20-21: Round of 64
March 23-24: Round of 32 (Site Unknown)
March 25-26: Round of 16
March 27-28: Round of 8
April 3: Final Four
April 5: Championship Game

Students lose: As John Feinstein points out in his back-and-forth with Shaheen, it's possible the Sweet 16 will lose an entire week of classes. But it's worse than that. 96 teams have to wait until Sunday at the latest to play their first game. How much focus will there be on school when there's a tournament to be played in a few days? Better to get it out of the way sooner so that the focus on school can come back a lot quicker.

Teams lose: When I set up my 96-team bracket a couple of months ago, I set it up assuming 3 games would be played in first week. Why? It gives the top 32 teams more of a competitive advantage to be a top-8 seed because they would play a possible two games while the other 64 teams would have played 3 games that first week. Under the proposed model, it's quite possible during the second week, a top-8 seed would have to play 4 games in a week. That's no incentive. Plus, the round of 32 may occur at the regional sites, which would mean teams would fly out for 1 game for the round of 64 and then hurry onto the plane to get to the regional site, which is wasteful.

Fans lose: Specifically, fans who attend the games. If you want to follow your team around, you don't have a NCAA travel agent to help you with your flight the next day nor would you have the 3 or 4 days of lead time you have in today's format. And if your team truly is playing a maximum of 1 game at a first/second round site, why would you go?

I'm sure by the time the 96-team tournament begins, we'll be waiting in anticipation for the game between the 12th-place Big East team against the 3rd-place team from a conference most people have never heard of, but until then, there's still time to fix the logistics of such a tournament (or to leave things the way things are).

The Bracket Project Predictions - 2010

2010-03-16T09:03:00.000-07:00

My full bracket predictions will be released Wednesday.

In the meantime, I'll say Winthrop over Arkansas-Pine Bluff tonight in the opening round game.

UPDATE: 0 for 1. That's not good. Okay, here are my final predictions.

This sure smells chalky.

FIRST ROUND UPDATE: 25 out of 32 correct. (96.6 percentile according to ESPN.) Only lost Georgetown for the Sweet 16.

SECOND ROUND UPDATE: ESPN says I'm at the 97.7 percentile but when you lose your predicted national champion Kansas, you're pretty much done. My Midwest is shot but the rest of the elite 8 can still happen.

The Bracket Matrix Results - 2010

2010-03-14T21:08:00.001-07:00

The scoring is complete and the winners of this year's bracket challenge are Bracketville, Bracket Madness, and Eric Prisbell of the Washington Post. All three tied with a Paymon score of 322.

Shawn Siegel at College Hoops Net seeded the most teams correctly with 36. Bracketville seeded the most teams within one seed line at 61.

The average score was a little bit north of 303. Joe Lunardi and his team of bracketologists got a score of 300.

Find all the results here.

The rankings page has also been updated for 2010.

Final Bracket - 2010

2010-03-14T14:34:00.001-07:00

Here it is. Let's see how wrong I am.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/2010FINAL.pdf

Bracket - March 13

2010-03-13T10:17:00.001-08:00

The newest bracket is posted on the main page. Tomorrow, the bracket gets blown up and I'll start fresh. The final bracket will be posted sometime during the Big Ten championship game.

Bracket - March 12

2010-03-12T08:15:00.000-08:00

No time for a bracket today. Here's my latest update. A full bracket will be released tomorrow morning.

1. Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky
2. West Virginia, Kansas State, Purdue, Ohio State
3. Villanova, Baylor, Wisconsin, New Mexico
4. Georgetown, BYU, Maryland, Pittsburgh
5. Temple, Tennessee, Michigan State, Vanderbilt
6. Texas A&M, Xavier, Butler, Texas
7. Northern Iowa, Florida State, Gonzaga, California
8. Marquette, Missouri, Richmond, Clemson
9. Utah State, Oklahoma State, UTEP, St. Mary's (CA)
10. Wake Forest, Old Dominion, Notre Dame, Louisville
11. Florida, UNLV, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
12. Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington, Siena
13. Cornell, Rhode Island, Wofford, Murray State
14. Akron, Montana, Sam Houston State, Oakland
15. UCSB, Morgan State, Vermont, North Texas
16. E. Tenn. State, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Schedule up to Selection Sunday

2010-03-11T18:24:00.000-08:00

Because of work and personal commitments, updates will be sporadic up to Selection Sunday. Friday's really busy, so there will only be one matrix update tomorrow. Here's a schedule of things to come (all times Pacific):

Thursday night: Matrix updates as needed

Friday by 11:00 AM: Updated NCAA and NIT bracket
Friday by 6:00 PM: The only matrix update of the day

Saturday by 10:30 AM: Updated NCAA and NIT bracket
Saturday all day: Matrix updates as needed

Sunday all day: Matrix updates as needed
Sunday @ 2:30 PM: Final NCAA bracket is released
Sunday @ 2:55 PM: Last matrix update

Sunday @ 3:00 PM: NCAA Selection Show on CBS

Sunday @ 5:00 PM: Final NIT bracket is released

Sunday night: Final matrix is released with results

My team can't make it to the CBI or the CIT??? Say it ain't so!

2010-03-10T18:45:00.000-08:00

A few people are reading my NIT page and are wondering why their team isn't even listed in the CBI/CIT section. While I feel the 32 teams I list are the most deserving (quite honestly, I'm mostly looking at computer rankings and RPI by the time I get to team #129), there's still a chance your team could be selected. Take a look at who was invited in 2009 by RPI ranking.

CBI:

71. Wisconsin-Green Bay
83. Nevada
85. UTEP
86. Houston
89. Northeastern
90. Buffalo
97. Vermont
100. Wyoming
102. College of Charleston
106. Stanford
110. Boise State
129. Richmond
131. Troy
150. St. John's
154. Oregon State
158. Wichita State

CIT:

95. Evansville
98. Bradley
103. Old Dominion
118. Mount St. Mary's
120. Portland
122. Oakland
124. Belmont
125. Rider
135. Idaho
137. Kent State
138. James Madison
143. Austin Peay
147. Pacific
151. Liberty
163. Drake
175. The Citadel

175! They only invite 129 teams total to the 4 tournaments!

The CBI and CIT are in it to fill their at-large bids and make money, not to find what teams are most deserving. So if your favorite team had a winning record or did okay in a BCS conference, you're going to get consideration.

Bracket - March 8

2010-03-08T16:07:00.000-08:00

Only one addition to the bracket this week as Memphis moves up to the bracket and Rhode Island moves out. It's Championship Week, so this bracket will change drastically come Friday. New brackets will come out Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon.

In the meantime, the Bracket Matrix will be updated twice a day and anytime a change to the National Bracket is required due to the conference tournaments.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030810.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030810.pdf

Bracket - March 5

2010-03-05T17:49:00.001-08:00

Congrats to Cornell for clinching the Ivy League championship and the automatic bid to the NCAAs. 4 more automatic bids will be claimed this weekend in the following conferences:

Saturday
Atlantic Sun (Mercer or East Tennessee State)
Big South (Coastal Carolina or Winthrop)
Ohio Valley (Murray State or Morehead State)

Sunday
Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Illinois Sate, or Bradley)

As for today's bracket, Notre Dame's win over UConn meant they switched places on the bracket as the Irish are the last team in while UConn's back outside. The Huskies can't get in with a 7-10 Big East record and certainly can't with a 7-11 record if they lose to USF. Notre Dame's place is not assured, but a win over Marquette would provide a lot of breathing room.

Mississippi State looked awfully shaky against Auburn and fall back while their rival Ole Miss move into the bracket on the heels of a 3-game winning streak.

Two other teams also lost key games this week to fall out of the bracket: UAB lost to Memphis and fell to 3rd in the CUSA. Illinois fell to Ohio State, which is a respectable loss, but their RPI is now 73 and their record against Big Ten teams above them in the standings is 2-5. They are the first team out.

To replace them, Washington has won 8 of 10 and has a win over conference leader California, something Arizona State doesn't have, and Rhode Island, which was helped not only by their win over Charlotte but also by the loss by Dayton.

In NIT land, Jacksonville clinched the NIT auto bid for the Atlantic Sun after advancing furthest in the tourney but falling to Mercer in the semifinals.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030510.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030510.pdf

Lipscomb Loses; May Head to NIT

2010-03-03T14:57:00.000-08:00

In the Atlantic Sun tournament today, Kennesaw State beat Lipscomb, which was the #1 seed. ~~As a result, Lipscomb receives an automatic bid to the NIT, thus taking away a spot from an at-large team. Based on Monday's S-Curve, that team would be St. Louis.~~

The only other game to watch out for today, in terms of NIT implications, is Lehigh's game against Army in the Patriot League tournament.

UPDATE: According to this article, the Atlantic Sun changed its tiebreaker rule for the NIT bid. It now states that the regular-season champion who advances furthest in the A-Sun tournament will get the NIT automatic bid. So Lipscomb won't go to the NIT, leaving Belmont, Jacksonville, and Campbell still in the running provided they don't win the A-Sun tournament. (The tournament champion, of course, goes to the NCAA tournament.)

2ND UPDATE: Belmont and Campbell both lost today, making Jacksonville the recipient of the automatic NIT bid should it not win the conference tournament.

3RD UPDATE: According to the director of athletics at Lipscomb, the Bisons would receive the automatic NIT bid should Jacksonville win the conference tournament.

Bracket - March 1

2010-03-01T16:59:00.000-08:00

The only change in terms of teams in this bracket is Mississippi State went in and Rhode Island went out. Mississippi State is in the midst of a three-game winning streak and currently on top of the SEC West. Rhode Island suffered a loss to St. Bonaventure and now the Atlantic 10 is down to 3 teams. However, Dayton is on the doorstep to get right back in with its remaining games against Richmond and St. Louis.

I seriously considered putting Notre Dame in the bracket. They just won against Pittsburgh and at Georgetown but that was after a 3-game losing streak, falling to St. John's, Seton Hall, and Louisville. In the end, I left them as last 8 out. A huge bubble game awaits on Wednesday against Connecticut. Winner is in the bracket.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030110.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030110.pdf

Matrix Update

2010-02-27T12:18:00.001-08:00

In an effort to provide the casual fan more of a quick glance at the matrix's bracket, I've re-organized the main matrix page in bracket form. The main information is there including average seed and number of brackets.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

I hope it's easier to read and less intimidating. Not many people like seeing 70 columns of data in front of you. But if that is more to your liking, the matrix is still there but at a new address.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix_2010.htm

Please post any feedback in the comments section.

Bracket - February 26

2010-02-26T17:28:00.000-08:00

I don't wanna keep picking on Joe Lunardi, but it's just so much fun. Today, he proposed a Duke-Maryland second round matchup which he hastily fixed. However, one problem leads to another. This is probably in his advanced course, but the NCAA also likes to avoid rematches of previous years' tournament matchups in the first and second rounds. By moving Maryland and making a Maryland-California first-round matchup, he'll repeat the same first round matchup from last year.

As for my bracket, Connecticut moves into the bracket at the expense of Dayton. The Flyers, with its ugly loss to Temple, moves down to 7th place in the Atlantic 10. St. Mary's and San Diego State stay put but with their lack of defining games down the stretch, both are subject to being passed by bubble teams behind them.

Also, this weekend, I'm planning on re-organizing the matrix. Lemme know what you think when you see it. A reminder to wanna-be contributors that the deadline to notify me is Monday.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/022610.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT022610.pdf

Site Update

2010-02-22T23:54:00.000-08:00

March 1 is rapidly approaching. That's the last day for new contributors to join the Bracket Matrix this year. If you're already listed on the rankings page (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html), the March 1 deadline does not apply to you but if you haven't started publishing mock brackets, lemme know when you do.

If you're interested in joining this madness, please read this page. For those really interested, also read the NCAA Principles and Procedures for constructing a NCAA bracket and a NIT bracket.

Just today I saw a couple of things that are noteworthy when building your bracket:

-Try not to confuse Temple and Tennessee. I saw it on three different sites.

-If you're making a true bracket and not just a seed list, keep in mind that the NCAA tries to avoid first and second round rematches. Case in point, our good friend Joe Lunardi currently sets up a Kentucky-Louisville second round rematch. In his defense, at first glance, it's not an easy fix, but it should be done.

Bracket - February 22

2010-02-22T21:08:00.000-08:00

As I write this, I see my bracket is already outdated. After toiling away in the NIT as low as a 4 seed in my projections after losing 5 of 6, Connecticut has won 3 straight including wins over Villanova and West Virginia. Before tonite's win, my bracket had them as the first team out, staying out mostly because of its 6-8 record in the Big East. Come Friday, the Huskies could be as high as a 10 seed.

There was a bit of shuffling in the top seeds. Purdue had already become a 1 seed in last Friday's bracket. Pittsburgh moved up to a 3 seed by virtue of its win over Villanova on Sunday. Michigan State moved down to a 5 after its home loss to Ohio State.

The first teams out are the aforementioned Connecticut Huskies along with Arizona State, Minnesota, and Mississippi State. They can be found on the top line of the NIT projections.

By email, I got questions about long shots for the NCAA tourney including Cincinnati and Michigan. The interesting thing about these teams is that they both have difficult schedules remaining which means chances to build up their resumes quickly. Obviously, Cincinnati has the better shot right now. After what should be an easy game against DePaul, the Bearcats finish up the season against West Virginia, Villanova, and Georgetown. If they win two out of three and get a quality win in the Big East tournament (beating DePaul again wouldn't help much), they should be right at the cut line.

Michigan's road got a lot tougher after their home loss to Penn State. Even though they finish the season against Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Michigan State, a sweep will likely only get them to the top half of the NIT. A run to the title game is a requirement. They don't necessarily have to win it; just get there. Losing one more time in the regular season means they will have to win the Big Ten tournament.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/022210.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT022210.pdf

Bracket - February 19

2010-02-19T17:38:00.001-08:00

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/021910.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT021910.pdf

Bracket - February 15

2010-02-15T16:12:00.000-08:00

Two changes to the bracket today: San Diego State and Mississippi State replaced UAB and Florida.

The Aztecs moved into a tie for 3rd in the Mountain West with their win over UNLV. They were the first team out last year, in my opinion, and it's shaping up to be a nail-biter this year as well. They have decent computer numbers including an RPI of 40, but the defining road win is not there (Utah, I guess?). What helps them are wins over New Mexico and Arizona, especially if the Wildcats can make a run in the vulnerable Pac-10.

Mississippi State got two nice wins last week over Mississippi and Auburn but they'll need to show some fight against conference leader Kentucky to stay in the bracket Friday.

UAB has lost 3 of their last 4 and dropped to 4th in the CUSA. Florida has lost their last two including a loss at home to Xavier. Florida's next two opponents are the exact same ones Mississippi State beat last week so beat both of them and they'll definitely be back in.

Near the top, Ohio State looked extremely impressive in a win over Illinois and moved into the 3 seed. Like I said though, they face an extremely tough test this week as they face Purdue and Michigan State.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/021510.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT021510.pdf

Bracket - February 12

2010-02-12T18:53:00.001-08:00

No changes in or out in today's bracket. Up top, Villanova and West Virginia switched spots after Villanova beat West Virginia on Monday. In addition, though Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Tennessee all lost, all stayed as 3 seeds as I didn't think Gonzaga and Ohio State should pass them quite yet. Gonzaga, after beating St. Mary's last night, might have reached its peak as its toughest remaining opponent has an RPI of 202. Ohio State, meanwhile, has its toughest games of the year in the next week and a half and I want to see how it does, starting with Illinois this weekend (followed up by Purdue and Michigan State).

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/021210.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT021210.pdf

Thursday Update

2010-02-11T13:40:00.000-08:00

The matrix will be updated a little earlier than usual (in the next couple of hours) to accomodate the earlier start time for Cal vs. Washington. There will also be two matrix updates tomorrow as Lunardi posts his first Friday bracket of the year (probably in the morning) and I'll be around after work posting mine.

Speaking of Joe, I just wanted to point out that he published an email on his ESPN Insider blog from a 15-year-old kid that made his own bracket while he was waiting for the snow to melt. Yes, the kid omitted BYU and included Northwestern, but it's a decent bracket and Joe marvels at his level of detail and passion. If only Joe and "his team of bracketologists" could match this level of detail and passion...(5 Big East teams on the bubble this week? UConn and Pitt in the first round last week?)

Ok, off to Berkeley for a Top Dog and hopefully a competitive game.

Bracket - February 8

2010-02-08T23:00:00.000-08:00

Minnesota and Charlotte both scored road wins last weekend. However, both left my bracket tonight. What???

The Golden Gophers have been struggling for the past few weeks, losing 5 of their last 7, including a 22 -point loss to Ohio State. They went to last place Penn State and escaped with a 2 point victory. Then Illinois upset Michigan State. The knock on Illinois was that while it had a great conference record, they had feasted on the likes of Penn State, Indiana, and Iowa. But with the victory over the Spartans, that 8-3 conference record means something now (would've meant more if Lucas was in the lineup), and so they passed Minnesota to get a spot in the bracket, albeit the last one.

Charlotte also struggled on the road against last place Fordham. I woke up Saturday and happened to catch this game because I just put them in the bracket the day before. Yet, here I was watching them trail by 10 with 7 minutes to go then take the lead with only about 3 minutes to go. On Friday, it was a toss-up between Charlotte and Richmond for the last spot and Charlotte got it. While they still have the A-10 lead, Richmond had the better weekend, upsetting Temple, and the Spiders replace the 49ers.

Don't fret...Minnesota and Charlotte top the NIT projection along with Washington, who scored a sweep over the Arizona schools, and Virginia Commonwealth, on a 4-game winning streak with Old Dominion as its latest victim.

For those in the Bay Area, I'll be up in Berkeley this Thursday to watch Cal vs. Washington, just so that I can see first-hand how ~~bad~~ inconsistent the top two teams in the Pac-10 are.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/020810.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT020810.pdf

Bracket - February 5

2010-02-06T10:49:00.000-08:00

The last two teams in the last bracket, Cincinnati and Mississippi State, both lost and as a result, both were kicked into the NIT for the time being. Both have a good chance to come back in with wins this weekend over Syracuse at home and at Florida, respectively.

To replace them, UTEP is on a 6-game winning streak and will battle Tulsa today for sole possession of first place in CUSA. Charlotte becomes the fifth team from the Atlantic 10 to make the bracket. The 49ers' non-conference schedule was pretty average with its best win being against Louisville, but they have no bad losses and like UTEP, are on a 6-game winning streak and could be atop the A-10 standings by the end of the day.

The only bracket matrix update this weekend will be around noon Pacific time on Sunday so that we can all focus on the Super Bowl. (I'm going high scoring and saying 38-31 Colts.)

The next bracket will be released on Monday night.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/020510.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT020510.pdf

Bracket - February 1

2010-02-01T21:11:00.000-08:00

I guess my last post about 96 teams was timely as Sports Business Journal reports CBS and Turner are planning a joint bid for the NCAA basketball tournament and other championships to counter potential bids by ESPN, FOX, and others. The key date is August 31, the last day the NCAA can opt out of its current TV deal with CBS for basketball. Also interesting is that the NCAA's deal with the NIT also ends after this season.

The bracket this week stayed relatively stable as no teams made a really big move upward. Notable items include New Mexico's win over BYU, which brought the Cougars back closer to the pack of Lobos, Rebels, and Aztecs chasing them, and Cornell's crushing win over Harvard, solidifying its hold over the Ivy League.

UConn became the first team out after two losses to Providence and Marquette. It wasn't included in my bracket, but losing to Louisville tonite didn't help matters. Being the first team out means they also became the top team in the new NIT projection I released. Other teams on the top line include UTEP, San Diego State, and Seton Hall.

Please note that the NIT guarantees bids to regular season champions which do not win their conference tournament. So, teams seeded on the 7 and 8 lines should be worried about being dropped. Also remember that NIT seeding is a lot more volatile than NCAA seeding. A team could be up in the NCAAs or not participating in either tournament depending on the outcome in even their next game.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/020110.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT020110.pdf

96 Teams - Does this look ridiculous?

2010-01-29T18:00:00.000-08:00

Last month, word got out that the NCAA was looking to, among other things, expand the tournament from the current 65 teams to a proposed 96 teams. So a few days ago, I got to wondering, as a prelude to my first NIT bracket projections on Monday, how would a 96-team bracket look? At first glance, it's not pretty.

Here are the ground rules:

I pretty much extended the rules for 65 teams to get to 96 teams. I kept the same format as it is today with 8 cities hosting the initial rounds. (Since the first round cities have been announced through 2013, the NCAA would have to keep them right?) News articles think CBS (or ESPN or whoever would televise this) would need an extra week to do this, but really all you would need is two extra days tops. So just add it on to the existing hosting format. Instead of Thursday-Sunday, you could have it from Wednesday-Monday.

Once 2014 rolls around (or the NCAA breaks the contracts with the cities already committed to hosting the first rounds), I would suggest they let the 16 national seeds (the top 16 teams) host the first three rounds. This would also get rid of numbering teams to a 24 seed, like I have it in this bracket (I only kept it for easy comparison with today's modern bracket). Each 6-team pod would be seeded from 1-6.

In terms of the bracketing rules, the main thing I kept an eye on was to prevent rematches in the round of 96 and 64 and conference rematches in the round of 96, 64, and 32. Everything else became fair game. The existing rules would probably need to be simplified in such a way so that the committee can complete the bracket in a timely manner.

Here's the sample bracket! (Note: this has little bearing on the regular brackets I produce.)

Sorry Georgia, NC State, Kent State, and Oklahoma. You are the first 4 teams out.

The breakdown of teams by conference:
13 - Big East
11 - ACC
8 - SEC, Big 12
7 - Big 10
6 - Atlantic 10
5 - CUSA
4 - Colonial, Mountain West, Pac-10
3 - WAC
2 - Missouri Valley, Ivy, West Coast

So after doing this exercise, here are some pros and cons:

PRO:

There are more teams! - Yes, there are 31 more teams, which means theoretically 31 more coaches are safe and 31 more schools get a piece of that tournament money for their conferences.

More openings for non-BCS teams - In my bracket, non-BCS teams got 14 of the 31 additional spots after receiving 6 out of 34 in last Monday's bracket.

The lower seeds have a better chance at advancing - The 16 seeds of today are usually one and done after facing a number one seed. However, in this format, they would be re-numbered as a 24 seed and would have to face the 9 then 8 seed in the first two rounds, a significantly easier path for Cinderella. At the same time, a 1 seed would get a more difficult opponent in its first game.

CON:

BCS dominance - It probably just applies to this bracket only but practically the entire Big East and ACC get to participate. Is that really spreading the wealth?

Say goodbye to the NIT - The NIT has been the home to the NCAA rejects lately and now that the NCAA owns the NIT, there really isn't a good reason to hold on to it.

Dull first round matchups - Before the NCAA tourney begins, how psyched are you to watch those first round NIT matchups on ESPN? Yeah, that's what I thought. Well, with the top 32 teams getting a bye for the first round, get ready for that, but renamed as the NCAA first round.
Large bracket - Did you see how large that bracket is? There would be too many teams to keep track of for the average person to stay focused. The pro for me would probably be I would not have to track 60-odd brackets in the matrix at the end of the year.

So, is it doable? Sure it is. Would I want it? Probably not. It's fine at 65. Maybe at most, 68. If to make the money work, the NCAA needs 80, that may also be palatable.

Bracket - January 25

2010-01-25T19:55:00.001-08:00

The last teams in? That would be Florida and North Carolina. Wow. For UNC, three straight losses including two at home will do that. I'm not sure what's wrong with the team, but judging by Roy Williams' looks on the sideline, he's looking for answers too. The next 4 games are tough but winnable before a home date with Duke.

Florida has the looks of a decent resume with wins over Michigan State and Florida State and only a bad loss to South Alabama. But after watching them a few times this year, they haven't been overly impressive. Without Parsons' heroics versus NC State and South Carolina, the resume turns ugly really fast. Its game against Tennessee on Sunday looms large.

As for the Pac-10, it's already been ugly and getting uglier. It's probably best that we let them have their fun until a Pac-10 tournament winner emerges in mid-March.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/012510.pdf

Bracket - January 18

2010-01-19T11:09:00.001-08:00

Just a follow-up to last week's note about the Pac-10. The top teams actually came out okay this week. California split a difficult road trip to the Washington schools (though they did look bad in Seattle). Washington defended the home court against Cal and Stanford. And Arizona State swept the Oregon schools on the road. It's a step in the right direction.

The big mover up the bracket was Ohio State. I had started to doubt them even with Evan Turner back in the lineup after their road loss to Minnesota. However, wins over Purdue and Wisconsin pushed them from first team out to a six seed. If they get wins over Northwestern and West Virginia this week, they'll shoot back into a protected seed.

On the flip side is Miami (FL). With a weak non-conference schedule that the Hurricanes pretty much dominated and a win over Wake Forest, things were looking good. However, losses to Virginia Tech and Virginia brought them back to earth. They'll need to collect wins in their next 5 games before a tough 3-game stretch against Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/011810.pdf

Bracket - January 11

2010-01-12T22:43:00.001-08:00

I was going to write this earlier today, but work got in the way and then I just had to read up on Lane Kiffin going from Tennessee to USC. That was just as surprising as Carroll to Seattle.

The big topic this week centered on the Pac-10. If the right (wrong?) dominoes fall, it's possible only the conference tournament champion would go to the NCAA tournament. The only team with a great non-conference win is USC and they won't be part of anything this postseason. In order to avoid this one-team fate, it's important that 2 or 3 teams break away from the pack (ideally, Cal, Washington, and Arizona State would be the strongest contenders). Beating each other up will give the committee no reason to consider any team for an at-large bid. This week, I've got 2 teams: Cal as the champ and Washington as the last team in.

All in all, while there were many upsets this weekend, there wasn't too much change at the top as only New Mexico and Ole Miss fell out of the top 4 seeds and were replaced by Wisconsin and Gonzaga.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/011110.pdf

Bracket - January 4

2010-01-04T23:24:00.000-08:00

Pittsburgh is the big mover this week as a 5-game winning streak including a road win over Syracuse has propelled them to a 5 seed. Tonight's win over Cincinnati only helps their resume as they enter a tough 3-game stretch in conference (Connecticut, Louisville, Georgetown).

Also making big moves in the bracket were Baylor, with convincing wins over SEC foes Arkansas and South Carolina, and Cincinnati, with its win over UConn (though the Bearcats will tumble a bit with its loss to Pitt).

Ohio State makes a big fall after going 0-2 to start Big Ten play. Their RPI right now is in the 90s. Luckily, facing Big Ten teams will improve their RPI by the time Selection Sunday but they also need to start winning and right now, since Evan Turner probably won't be back for another couple of weeks at the earliest. (Edit: Well, I guess he's back now.)

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/010410.pdf

USC Out of Postseason Contention

2010-01-03T12:15:00.000-08:00

USC has announced self-imposed sanctions in connection with the recruitment of O.J. Mayo. The immediate effect is that the Trojans will not participate in any postseason tournament this year, including the Pac-10 tournament. So, bracketologists, take note.

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/ncb/news/story?id=4792634

Happy New Year!

2009-12-31T19:35:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year everyone! Be safe and have fun tonight.

Come Monday, the Bracket Project moves into conference mode as you can expect bracket updates at least every Monday from here on out and, perhaps more importantly, the matrix gets updated once a day everyday as brackets from other sites are updated.

Remember, if you're a new bracketologist who would like to submit a site to the matrix, follow the principles described a few posts ago. And if you just follow the site, start up a discussion at the Facebook group.

See you Monday!

Bracket - December 28

2009-12-28T20:26:00.000-08:00

Quiet past couple of weeks as we celebrate the holidays. It's during these quiet weeks where small streaks get noticed. Just look at USC. With their new transfer Gerrity, they are rolling with a 6-game winning streak with wins over Tennessee, St. Mary's, and UNLV. And with the Pac-10 ripe for the taking, USC is in a great position. Can't overlook the 4 losses yet (which is why they're not in the field) but they have a chance to make a great statement against the Arizona schools at home this week.

On the flip side, Florida was in danger of falling out of the field with their own 3-game losing streak (Syracuse, Richmond, and South Alabama). They settled at an 11 seed. Luckily, they've got 2 easy games before a road test at North Carolina State and the start of the SEC schedule.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/122809.pdf

Bracket - December 14

2009-12-21T16:25:00.000-08:00

I'm slowly catching up. Obviously, this bracket is week old, so if I was re-doing it for today, I'd consider taking out Cincinnati, Memphis, and Seton Hall. I'd consider putting in a host of teams including Wake Forest and Richmond. But alas, I'm not studying it too much since my next bracket comes out next Monday, the 28th. Also, at that point, new brackets will start being released every Monday.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/121409.pdf

BCS 2009

2009-12-06T16:55:00.000-08:00

Now for my annual BCS post. Today's announcement that Alabama and Texas will play for the BCS championship may satisfy most people but what about TCU? Cincinnati? Boise State? As I've said before, a playoff is inevitable but probably won't be done in the near future. But sometime, the next step has to be a plus-one. This is how I would do it. It's the same thing as last year with a couple of tweaks.

1. Promote the Cotton Bowl to BCS status. This will keep the 10 team system the BCS has.
2. The champion from each of the BCS conferences receives an automatic berth.
3. The top non-BCS conference champion (or Notre Dame) will receive an automatic berth provided it is ranked higher than the lowest ranked BCS conference champion. If this lowest ranked team is unranked in the BCS, then the non-BCS team (or Notre Dame) must be ranked in the top 25.
4. Fill out the rest of the lineup with the highest ranked teams remaining in BCS order. Ignore the two-team limit per conference.
5. Pull out the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions and place them in the Rose Bowl.
6. The top 4 teams remaining will play each other. The highest ranked of these 4 will play the lowest ranked team of these 4 that avoids a rematch. Then the remaining two teams will play each other. The same will apply to the bottom 4 teams.
7. Once matchups are determined, assign them to bowls. Apply conference affiliations (Big 12-Fiesta, ACC-Orange, SEC-Sugar) with the remaining game to the Cotton Bowl. If a bowl needs to give up a conference affiliated with them to another bowl, that bowl will have priority over the Cotton Bowl.
8. Play the games!
9. After the games are played, run the BCS system one more time and pit the top 2 teams against each other for a BCS champion.

So how would it work this year?

This year's BCS conference champions were 1. Alabama (SEC), 2. Texas (Big 12), 3. Cincinnati (Big East), 7. Oregon (Pac-10), 8. Ohio State (Big Ten), and 10. Georgia Tech (ACC).

The highest ranked non-BCS conference champion was 4. TCU and it gets an automatic berth since it's ranked higher than Georgia Tech.

The highest ranked teams left in the BCS are 5. Florida, 6. Boise State, and 10. Iowa.

Thus, the matchups would be:

Rose: 7. Oregon vs. 8. Ohio State
Fiesta: 2. Texas vs. 3. Cincinnati
Sugar: 1. Alabama vs. 4. TCU
Orange: 9. Georgia Tech vs. 6. Boise State
Cotton: 5. Florida vs. 10. Iowa

Then use the BCS after these games are played and then match the top 2 teams. It allows TCU and Cincinnati to at least have a shot at the championship. Ok, it doesn't solve Boise State, but years down the line when a playoff is viable, that problem will be solved too.

Bracket - November 30

2009-12-01T12:00:00.000-08:00

Lots of changes fill this week's bracket. The big winners were Syracuse, which won the Coaches v. Cancer tournament beating California and North Carolina in the process, Florida, with its impressive win over Michigan State, and UNLV, which is undefeated and has a win over Louisville. Portland also made its first appearance in the bracket, but has since lost to Portland State to fall back to earth.

Chief among the losers is UCLA. Sure, it lost a few key guys from last year and the rest are pretty much injured, but the Bruins were still expected to contend for best team in the Pac-10 behind Washington and Cal. But losses to Cal State Fullerton, Portland, Butler, and Long Beach State mean they may be fighting to avoid last place in the conference, which itself is going through a down year.

Next bracket will be posted on December 14.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/113009.pdf

First matrix of 2009-10 posted

2009-11-09T21:59:00.000-08:00

The next update is on November 16.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

The 2009-10 Bracket Matrix Links

2009-11-09T20:03:00.000-08:00

All the links used in the Bracket Matrix for 2009-10 are listed below. If you would like to contribute, please read this. The sign-up window for new contributors is now closed. Those who have submitted a bracket in previous years may still submit a bracket for the final matrix.

The Bracket Project - BP

CBS Sports - Gary Parrish and Jerry Palm
ESPN - Joe Lunardi
FOX Sports - Bracketology 101
Rivals - Mike Huguenin
The Sporting News - Ryan Fagan
Sports Illustrated - Andy Glockner
Yahoo Sports - Brad Evans

ASN College Basketball
Baseline Stats - Brendon Desrochers
Basketball Predictions - BaP
BEISketbol
Bleacher Report - Kevin Burke (BR-KB), Jameson Fleming (BR-JF), Jesse Kramer (BR-JK), Thomas Nolan (HTTV), Jeff Pencek (BR-JP) and Jordan Schwartz (BR-JS)
Blogging the Bracket - BtB
Bluejay Banter Bracketology from White and Blue Review- BBB
Bracket Ball
The Bracket Board - TBB
Bracket Madness - MAD
Bracket Mensa - BM
The Bracket of Truth - BT
Bracket Predictions - BrP
The Bracketeer - TB
BracketGuy
Bracketology 65 - B65
Bracketology 101 - B101
Bracketville - BV
Brackonomics - Brack
Bryce's Brackets and Observations
Bucky's Bracket
Chop Culture
College Hoops Net - Shawn Siegel - CHN
College Hoops Net - March Madness All Season - MMAS
D1SCOURSE - Patrick Stevens - D1
Daily Bracket - DB
D-World Entertainment Inc. - DW
The Eclecticist - TE
Everyday is March (Bracketville USA) - EIM
Facts & Bracks from The HoopGroup - F&B
Grant's Bracketology
Howard Salwasser's Bracket Watch - BW
Jabesblog
Joey's Sports Blog
March Madness '10 - MM10
NCAA Hoops Digest - NHD
Oak Creek's March Madness
PHSports
Rainmaker's Bracketology
Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist - SS
Rock M Nation
Rush the Court - Zach Hayes
Russel's Bracketology - RB
Schmolik 64
Storming the Floor - STF
The Washington Post's 65 - Eric Prisbell - WP

2010 March Madness - MM
Athlon Sports - ATH
Basketball Forum - Coolpohle (CB) and JuniorNoboa (JN)
Beer's Bracket
Bracket WAG
Bracketography - Graph
Busting Bracketologists - Bryce and CJ
CollegeORI.com (Also Willo on Basketball Forum)
CollegeRPI.com - Jerry Palm
CollegeSports-Fans.com - CSF
The Columbus Dispatch - Bill Rabinowitz - CD
Crashing the Dance - CtD
Feature Presentation Online -FPO
Jason's Bracketology - JB
Lobofan2003's Bracketology
MAG NCAA Tournament Projections
My San Antonio - Stephen Fontenot - SA
NCAA Bracket - NB
Online Sports Fanatic - Daniel Evans (OSF-E) and Blake Hofstad (OSF-H)
Real Time RPI
RPI Forecast
Seed Madness
The Hoops Report - Ryan Feldman - THR
The Sports Bank.net - TSB
VanDongen Computer Rankings - VCR
VTS Bracket 2010
Warren Nolan - WN
Ya Sports! - LAOJoe and GTucker

Want to contribute??? Read this!

2009-11-09T17:32:00.000-08:00

1. You need to set up a web site to place your bracket that will be consistent throughout the season. A blog will do. A web site will most definitely do. A bracket posted on a message board will not do. The link will change frequently and will get lost in various discussions, making it difficult for the average reader to find it. (Exception: A message board devoted exclusively to bracketology.) Also, you can't post it on Facebook, Myspace, or some other social networking site because not everyone can access it.

2. You have to tell me where your site is. I don't have a sixth sense when it comes to finding these things. I rely on you and readers like you to tell me what kind of sites to add to this page.

3. The NCAA sets up procedures and principles for building a bracket. Read them! A seriously flawed bracket won't be posted. However, if your seedings are out of the norm, I'll still most likely post it provided that the principles are followed and you have an explanation as to why you've built the bracket like you did. I reserve the right to not post a bracket with something like a winless team as a #1 seed.

4. Please date-stamp your bracket. Brackets of a certain age will be removed from the list, and if there's no date-stamp, obviously I can't tell when your bracket was updated.

5. To make it easier on me, please format your bracket so that at least half of it can be seen on the screen at any one time. You can make it even easier for me by publishing a seed list of your 65 teams. Brackets must have at least 48 seeded teams to be listed in the matrix. Sites that merely list teams with no seeding can be linked to the page but will not be added to the matrix.

6. No new sites will be added to the 2010 page after March 1, 2010 unless you have appeared in previous versions of this page, in which case, you will be grandfathered in. In addition, no bracket will be accepted to the final matrix of the season after the beginning of the Selection Sunday show.

7. Link to my site! I've linked to yours!

8. I'm only one guy. If this could pay me what I get at my regular job, I'd update this site 24/7. That simply is not the case. If someone else can do this better, I'll gladly step aside, but from the looks of it, I'm the only (crazy) one. So if you don't see your site on here, an update hasn't been done for a while or I don't respond to you, I hope you'll understand why.

Pre-season Bracket 2009-10

2009-11-08T21:33:00.000-08:00

The 50webs homepage now features The Bracket Project's preseason bracket. As always, throw this bracket out once the games begin.

The Bracket Matrix will release its first edition Monday night. Currently, there are 12 brackets in the matrix.

If you would like to submit your own bracket for the matrix, publish it and lemme know where it is. New matrices will be published every Monday night until after the new year begins, at which point, the matrix will be updated every day. The matrix will include preseason brackets until the November 30th edition.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/Preseason_200910.pdf

Welcome back!

2009-11-01T14:49:00.000-08:00

It's November, so welcome to another season of The Bracket Project.

I will release my pre-season bracket for The Bracket Project next Sunday, November 8. Future releases will be as follows:

November 30
December 14, 28
January 4, 11, 18, 25
February 1, 5, 8, 12, 15, 19, 22, 26
March 1, 5, 8, 12, 13, 14

Most people, however, come here for The Bracket Matrix. The first edition for this year will be published on Monday, November 9 and will be updated every Monday until January 4. After this day, the matrix will be updated once a day everyday (time permitting).

If you have a new bracket to submit to the matrix, please note that you have until March 1 to tell me about it and be sure to read the NCAA rules and regulations concerning the bracket to help you structure it and my own expectations.

The Bracket Project is in hibernation

2009-04-06T23:03:00.000-07:00

With UNC's victory tonight over Michigan State, we bid farewell to another college basketball season. Before signing off, I've reorganized the pages on the 50webs site a little bit and gave the matrix archives a more consistent look. The links are on the right-hand side of this blog.

I'll see you in November.

The Bracket Project Predictions for 2009

2009-03-18T11:59:00.000-07:00

There are nine quintillion ways a 64-team bracket can turn out. This is one of them. This post will be updated as needed during the tournament (meaning I'll probably be wrong a lot and I'll be scribbling out teams and putting new teams in. Hey, I'm good at picking who goes into the tournament, not who's gonna win).

I was right about Morehead State. I'm 1 for 1! Can I stop now?

OK, guess not. Here we go. (Printable version of my original predictions here)

First Round

MIDWEST
Louisville over Morehead State (Correct)
Ohio State over Siena (Wrong!)
Utah over Arizona (Wrong!)
Wake Forest over Cleveland State (Wrong!)
West Virginia over Dayton (Wrong!)
Kansas over North Dakota State (Correct)
USC over Boston College (Correct)
Michigan State over Robert Morris (Correct)

WEST
Connecticut over Chattanooga (Correct)
BYU over Texas A&M (Wrong!)
Purdue over Northern Iowa (Correct)
Washington over Mississippi State (Correct)
Utah State over Marquette (Wrong!)
Missouri over Cornell (Correct)
California over Maryland (Wrong!)
Memphis over Cal State Northridge (Correct)

EAST
Pittsburgh over E. Tennessee State (Correct)
Tennessee over Oklahoma State (Wrong!)
Wisconsin over Florida State (Correct)
Xavier over Portland State (Correct)
UCLA over Virginia Commonwealth (Correct)
Villanova over American (Correct)
Minnesota over Texas (Wrong!)
Duke over Binghamton (Correct)

SOUTH
North Carolina over Radford (Correct)
Butler over LSU (Wrong!)
Illinois over Western Kentucky (Wrong!)
Gonzaga over Akron (Correct)
Arizona State over Temple (Correct)
Syracuse over Stephen F. Austin (Correct)
Michigan over Clemson (Correct)
Oklahoma over Morgan State (Correct)

Second Round

MIDWEST
Louisville over ~~Ohio State~~ Siena (Correct)
~~Utah over Wake Forest over~~ Arizona over Cleveland State (Correct)
~~West Virginia over~~ Kansas over Dayton (Correct)
Michigan State over USC (Correct)

WEST
Connecticut over ~~BYU~~ Texas A&M (Correct)
Purdue over Washington (Correct)
Missouri over ~~Utah State~~ Marquette (Correct)
Memphis over ~~California~~ Maryland (Correct)

EAST
Pittsburgh over ~~Tennessee~~ Oklahoma State (Correct)
Xavier over Wisconsin (Correct)
Villanova over UCLA (Correct)
Duke over ~~Minnesota~~ Texas (Correct)

SOUTH
North Carolina over ~~Butler~~ LSU (Correct)
Gonzaga over ~~Illinois~~ Western Kentucky (Correct)
Syracuse over Arizona State (Correct)
Oklahoma over Michigan (Correct)

Sweet 16

MIDWEST
Louisville over ~~Utah~~ Arizona (Correct)
Michigan State over ~~West Virginia~~ Kansas (Correct)

WEST
Connecticut over Purdue (Correct)
Missouri over Memphis (Correct)

EAST
Pittsburgh over Xavier (Correct)
Duke over Villanova (Wrong!)

SOUTH
North Carolina over Gonzaga (Correct)
Syracuse over Oklahoma (Wrong!)

Great Eight

MIDWEST - Louisville over Michigan State (Wrong!)
WEST - Missouri over Connecticut (Wrong!)
EAST - Pittsburgh over ~~Duke~~ Villanova (Wrong!)
SOUTH - North Carolina over ~~Syracuse~~ Oklahoma (Correct)

Final Four

~~Louisville over Missouri~~ Michigan State over Connecticut
North Carolina over ~~Pittsburgh~~ Villanova

Championship

North Carolina over ~~Louisville (I know, not exactly original)~~ Michigan State

An Alternate View

2009-03-18T11:55:00.000-07:00

The people at The Quest For 65 have come up with another way to grade how bracketologists fared on Selection Sunday called the QPI. Check it out here.

The Bracket Project...Projects - 2009

2009-03-16T14:56:00.000-07:00

To be honest, I didn't actually see the real bracket until today. I heard Greg Gumbel announce the seed numbers yesterday then moved on to updating the matrix with the rest of the brackets. Some parting thoughts about the bracket before we move on:

San Diego State, Creighton, and St. Mary's were all more deserving than Arizona to be in the bracket but I can understand why they did it. Arizona beat tourney at-large teams Kansas (3), Washington (4), and Gonzaga (4). Creighton beat one at-large team - Dayton, an 11 seed. St. Mary's beat no at-large tourney teams and had 3 cracks at Gonzaga and lost all of them. San Diego State did beat Utah and BYU, but lost head-to-head against St. Mary's and Arizona.

The thing that glares at me about Arizona is something I thought the committee emphasized: who you play and where you play them, and how you are playing down the stretch. They were 2-9 on the road with its only wins against Oregon and Oregon State. They followed up a 7-game win streak by losing 5 of their last 6.

Location will always be a problem for the committee and this year moreso because most of the sites are so far from the schools. Portland, Boise, and Miami barely have any tourney schools near them but all are hosting this year, creating weird travel situations such as Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah traveling to Miami, Florida State traveling to Boise, UCLA to Philadelphia, and so on. The NCAA should limit the far-out destinations to just one or two a year.

Not too many complaints about seeding...Boston College was too high. I thought they were closer to the bubble due to their rocky finish but beating Duke and UNC helps. Wisconsin was too low. I heard they were a true 11 so maybe that's okay. I guess I didn't penalize them enough for the 6-game losing streak during conference play.

My no rhyme or reason, straight from the gut predictions will be out Wednesday and will be updated with new predictions as we move along through the tournament. Except for the Elite Eight round. I will be in Reno/Tahoe with spotty Internet access. Hopefully, I can make it to a sportsbook to catch the games or a hot spot where I can update the blog.

My first prediction: Morehead State over Alabama State in the play-in game. Let's hope I don't start 0 for 1.

The 2009 Bracket Matrix Post-Mortem

2009-03-15T23:47:00.000-07:00

Overall, the bracketologists' performance was down from last year as this year's average Paymon score was 303.6, about 5.5 points below last year's average bracket. Here are the highlights:

Bracketologists who were 65 out of 65:
Bracketography, Bryce Durgin, FOX Sports, and Round Table Sports

Top brackets with the most teams seeded correctly:
Rivals, Bracketville, and Bracketology 101 tied with 35. Right behind were Bracketography, Baseline Stats, Jerry Palm, The Bracket Board, and Hofstad at the Online Sports Fanatic with 34.

Top brackets with the most teams seeded within one of their actual seed:
Bracketography and March Madness All Season had 62. VTS follows with 61 and College Sports Fans had 60.

Finally, the highest Paymon scores this year:
Bracketography - 325
Rivals - Mike Huguenin - 318
Baseline Stats - 317
Bracketville - 316
Bracketology 101, Jerry Palm, and The Bracket Board - 315

Bracket - FINAL

2009-03-15T14:10:00.000-07:00

This is the most uncomfortable I've ever been after submitting my final bracket. Mississippi State and USC took the spots Creighton and St. Mary's were desperately holding onto. We'll see if I was right to let San Diego State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Dayton, Boston College, and Texas A&M (not in that order) keep their spots.

THE FINAL NCAA AND NIT BRACKETS

Bracket - March 14

2009-03-14T14:46:00.000-07:00

Florida and South Carolina faltered in the SEC tournament and now find themselves out of the field. St. Mary's and Maryland are back in. The Terps' stay may be short-lived depending on today's game vs. Duke and the state of the bubble.

Temple/Duquesne stole a bid with their wins over Xavier and Dayton and I decided to take Penn State's spot away. They suffer from the same problem South Carolina and Providence have: decent conference record but terrible non-conference performance.

Michigan State, with their loss to Ohio State, doesn't really have a shot at the #1 seed. Louisville, Connecticut, and Memphis are now fighting for the last two spots.

THE NCAA AND NIT BRACKETS FOR 3/14

Bracket - March 13

2009-03-13T14:09:00.000-07:00

It's times like these when it's great to live in California. A 6 OT game late at night on the east coast. Pshh. It ended like at 10:30 here. And boy, was that a great game until the last OT where Syracuse got out to a big enough lead to close out the game. That game pushes UConn to a #2 seed for now and has to wait to see if Louisville, Memphis or Michigan State stumble to try to re-gain the #1 seed.

Arizona lost a must-win game against arch-rival Arizona State and now finds itself outside of the field. New Mexico also lost, but to a comparably weaker Wyoming team, which baffles the mind. I guess it is tough to beat a team three times in a season. Also falling out was UNLV, which lost on its home floor to San Diego State.

For these three spots, one was taken by Cleveland State, which beat Butler to take the Horizon championship and the automatic spot. San Diego State also takes a spot after beating UNLV on its home floor. (Please note that SDSU and Boston College switched spots to conform with bracketing principles.) After that, it was tough. The teams which have games to go haven't done enough as of yet, so I took the best of the teams in the clubhouse, which looks to be Creighton. The Jays still have to dodge USC, Auburn, Maryland, Baylor, and the WAC/Atlantic 10/Mountain West/CUSA teams aiming for an automatic spot.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/031309.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT031309.pdf

1,000,000

2009-03-11T09:35:00.000-07:00

Today at around 8:30 this morning marked a milestone for The Bracket Project as the site has now been accessed one million times. I started this site as a time killer in 2005 as I was trying to find a job and now people use it everyday to track where their favorite team is in the scheme of things (Cleveland State really messed things up, didn't they?).

Thanks for visiting.

A look at the number of hits by year (April 1-March 31):

2005: 18,201 hits
2006: 122,729 hits
2007: 231,452 hits
2008: 357,919 hits
2009: 269,699 hits and counting

Bracket - March 9

2009-03-09T16:09:00.000-07:00

Another varied series of events this past weekend. Let's recap:

Creighton put up two very poor performances in the Missouri Valley tournament last week as they blew a 22-point lead in the second half against Wichita State and needed a last-second jumper to win. They followed that up with a 24-point loss to Illinois State. They are currently the first team out and are at the mercy of the tourney gods as other tournaments get started. It is their hope that an 11-win streak right before the tourney will turn some heads.

Penn State was pushed to last team in as they lost to Iowa. Wins by Penn State, Michigan, and Minnesota may ensure eight bids from the Big Ten.

Rhode Island was rewarded with a bid last Friday but followed that up with a loss against UMass, so they move back to first 4 out joining Creighton, UNLV, and Maryland.

New teams joining the madness include Michigan, with a huge win at Minnesota, and New Mexico, looking better after UNLV lost to SDSU.

For the NIT bracket, Davidson makes its first appearance here as they lost to College of Charleston in the semifinals of the SoCon tournament. A 5th seed may seem low but it's a reflection of the fact that they have little chance at an at-large and the teams above them do with their conference tournaments getting underway. In the end, their seed will probably settle at a 3 or 4.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030909.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030909.pdf

Bracket - March 6

2009-03-06T16:39:00.000-08:00

If you read the blog post prior to this one, you can deduce that if a bubble team won this week, they're in the bracket this week. If you lost, no guarantees.

So: Kentucky. Loss. Out. Maryland. Loss. Out. And Miami. Loss. Out.

On the other hand, Rhode Island. Win. In. They've now won 10 of their last 11.

Penn State. Win. In. They have 10 wins in the Big 10 after a huge last-second win vs. Illinois.

And UNLV. Win. In. Ok, they won against lowly Air Force. But I'm rewarding them moreso for their non-conference schedule rather than their conference play. New Mexico is in a three-way tie for first and is on the cusp of breaking through. UNLV is two games behind. Let's pray that the conference tournament solves this mess.

Arizona and Florida lost this week and are part of the last 4 in, with includes URI and St. Mary's (still unproven with Mills back in the lineup).

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030609.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030609.pdf

So lemme get this straight...

2009-03-04T20:20:00.000-08:00

A check on the teams just fighting to get into the tournament so far this week. (Is fighting the right word for these teams?)

Notre Dame loses to Villanova. Ok, to be expected though the Irish shouldn't have stopped playing with 10 minutes left in the game.

Cincinnati loses to South Florida. Hmm, that's not good. The Bearcats have suddenly lost 4 of 5 and the Bulls were supposed to be the easiest opponent to play of those 5.

Georgetown loses to St. John's. That's not good either. No way the NCAA's will accept a team with a 7-11 conference record. (The Hoyas will beat DePaul, right?)

Kansas State loses to Oklahoma State. One goes up, one goes down. The Cowboys still need a couple of wins to assure themselves a spot in the tourney, but hey, a bubble team that won! It's suddenly an accomplishment! OTOH, Kansas State needs to get to the Big 12 finals just to even get a shot.

Maryland loses to Wake Forest. The Terps go cold for 4 minutes in the 2nd half and loses by 2. They continue bouncing in and out of the tournament projections.

Florida loses to Mississippi State and Kentucky loses to Georgia. HAHAHAHA. Now, this is getting ridiculous. Now the Gators and Cats play what amounts to be an elimination game on Saturday.

Boston College loses to North Carolina State. The Eagles are still in it, mainly because all these teams around them in this blog post have lost.

Virginia Tech loses to North Carolina. Another great effort by the Hokies. They always give great efforts, but rarely get great wins. A road victory against Florida State is now pretty necessary.

Miami (FL) loses to Georgia Tech. Whoa. I wasn't expecting this. A 7-9 ACC mark could make it in, but only with a deep run in the tourney. It won't start out well as they probably get the 8/9 game vs. Maryland or Virginia Tech, both of which will also be desperate teams.

UAB loses to UTEP. The Blazers were the CUSA's best shot at an at-large bid other than Memphis, of course.

New Mexico beats Utah. Ending on a good note. The Lobos move into a first-place tie with the Utes in the Mountain West, though their non-conference schedule keeps them out of an at-large.

Bracket - March 2

2009-03-02T16:00:00.000-08:00

Washington was the big winner this week as they swept the Arizona schools en route to at least a share of the Pac-10 championship. They move up to the highest 4 seed on the S-curve.

Turning our attention to the cut line, Oklahoma State finally got a good win on their resume with a home win vs. Texas. No matter what happens against Kansas State on Tuesday however, they really need to win against Oklahoma to get in the NCAAs without a deep run in the Big 12 tourney. Fellow Big 12 member Texas A&M joins the bracket as a 12 seed. They're on a 4-game winning streak and hold wins against Texas, Arizona, and LSU.

From the ACC, Maryland and Miami (FL) re-joins the field of 65. A competitive game against Duke and a road win vs. NC State pushed Maryland into the field. Miami's 6-8 conference record isn't particularly attractive but when those wins include Maryland, Wake Forest, Florida State and a sweep of Boston College, that's better than some teams' entire resumes. Plus, their remaining schedule (@GT and vs. NC St.) sets up well for an 8-8 record heading into the ACC tournament.

Losses by Cincinnati, Michigan, and Virginia Tech dropped them out of today's bracket.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030209.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030209.pdf

Bracket - February 27

2009-02-27T19:00:00.001-08:00

I usually don't update the site on Saturdays but I do answer emails and make corrections when I can. However, tomorrow, I will be completely away from my computer as I head to Berkeley to see ESPN's College Gameday and the game vs. UCLA. As a Cal alum, I must say...Go Bears!

I moved Oklahoma down to the 2 seed. Many bracketologists are giving them the benefit of the doubt with Blake Griffin out of the lineup (though some moved up Kansas because of the win...come on, be consistent guys). I gave them that benefit at Texas. I'm not with a home loss to Kansas. However, based on remaining strength of schedule, Oklahoma is in prime position to re-capture a #1 seed.

Dayton and Temple both lost this week, setting up a huge matchup on Saturday. The winner I think will be in the bracket come Monday.

Teams moving back into the bracket include Virginia Tech, with a great road win vs. Clemson after losing three straight, Cincinnati, spoiling Huggins' return, Michigan, also bouncing back with a win over Purdue, and Oklahoma State. The Cowboys benefit the same way as Kansas State did last Monday...they just keep winning (winners of 4 straight). However, if they can't beat Texas or Oklahoma, it'll move them right back out because they have no wins against any Big 12 teams projected to be in the NCAAs (0-4 against Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri). Just ask last year's VaTech what the lack of wins against ACC teams that went to the NCAAs got them.

St. Mary's moves up to an 11 seed, as a result of a switch with Dayton to satisfy bracket principles. However, with the weak remaining schedule and the continued uncertainty of the availability of Patty Mills, it seems they need to win the conference tournament to get in.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/022709.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT022709.pdf

Who can you trust?

2009-02-25T23:35:00.000-08:00

Lost in the sea of brackets of The Bracket Matrix lies this question: who can I trust? Just because a national writer is making a bracket doesn't mean it's going to be right. At the same time, you shouldn't always disregard the opinion of a lowly blogger. Being the best at predicting a bracket in any given year is a crapshoot. However, if you consistently produce good brackets year after year, you build trust. After 3 full years of The Bracket Matrix, which sites fit the bill?

Using the final results from each year, every site had a Paymon score calculated. Then the variance was calculated to see how much better each site did compared to the average for that year.

17 sites have submitted a final bracket to the matrix in all three years. The results confirm that Bracketology 101 has been the best, most consistent site out there for the last three years, averaging 15 points higher than the average bracket produced. My site and March Madness All Season are tied for second. It's interesting to note that while 2007 was my best year, it was generally considered to be a poor year for the committee. I guess I just channeled them pretty well that year.

In addition, MAG, The Bracket Board, Bracketography, Bracket Predictions, and Warren Nolan are the other active sites that have, over the course of three years, produced better-than-average brackets.

Everybody's favorite bracketologist, ESPN's Joe Lunardi, comes in tied for 12th.

Of course, just because these sites may not perform well in the final exam doesn't mean they are not valuable sources of information throughout the season. Bracket Express, while 15th, was always a must-read for me. It's too bad it hasn't been updated this year. Plus, with only 3 years, it's a small sample size. Some of these guys have been doing this for a lot longer than 3 years.

The complete results, including sites with less than 3 years in the matrix, can be found in the link below.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html

Bracket - February 23

2009-02-23T15:33:00.000-08:00

First off, thanks to links from Sports Illustrated and the Wall Street Journal, the Bracket Matrix reached 10,000 hits in a single day today. Usually, this occurs in March so thank you for reading and for those here for the first time, welcome.

For today's bracket, we bid farewell to Cincinnati, which suffered a home loss to Louisville, San Diego State, with a 26-point loss to New Mexico, Michigan, which shouldn't be losing to Iowa but they did, and USC, which fell further behind in the Pac-10 race with a loss to Washington.

Who replaces them? Kansas State and 3 mid-majors. KSU has won 8 out of 9 and while I did knock their non-conference schedule in the previous post, at least they're winning, which is more than what I can say for quite a few bubble teams. UNLV got a big win over BYU, albeit by a point. Temple has good non-conference wins against Tennessee and Penn State and they're also in the thick of things in the Atlantic 10 race. The winner of Dayton and Temple on Saturday will stay in the bracket next week (as long as they both win their games against Rhode Island and La Salle this week respectively). Finally, St. Mary's seems to have found its stride as Patrick Mills recovers from his injury with 3 wins in a row over Portland, San Diego, and Utah State. With Mills slated back for the conference tournament, we need to see if they can finish what they started against Gonzaga before Mills got injured.

Maryland has had a topsy-turvy season so far, but with its upset over North Carolina, they are right on the bubble. I still have them out though. One win vs. Duke or Wake Forest greatly reduces the need to perform well in the conference tourney and secure an at-large bid. If their inconsistency continues, they'll be hitting the NIT for the fourth time in 5 years.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/022309.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT022309.pdf

Bracket - February 20

2009-02-20T17:20:00.001-08:00

For this bracket, I had two spots open after Virginia Tech fell to Virginia and UNLV fell to Wyoming. I had three teams in mind: Penn State, Michigan, and Kansas State. Kansas State pretty much lost out with the lack of a quality win in their non-conference schedule. In fact, its only significant win is against Missouri. Instead, it has a bad loss against Oregon. Arguably, Penn State also doesn't have a non-conference quality win (Georgia Tech?), but it doesn't have a bad loss. Thus, the Nittany Lions and Wolverines make it in. (For bracketing purposes, Michigan switched with Davidson on the 11/12 lines to make things fit.)

Georgetown is also at the edge but a simple win over South Florida isn't enough right now. Win 2 of the next 3, and then we'll talk.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/022009.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT022009.pdf

Bracket - February 16

2009-02-16T17:06:00.000-08:00

No change at the top again as UConn, UNC, OU, and Pitt kept their spots on the top line. As for the bottom, well.

Miami and Georgetown lost again in conference play. With only 4 wins apiece in their respective conferences, it was tough to keep them in even with their stellar computer numbers. Boston College re-joins the dance with a big home win over Duke. UNLV also comes back with two wins to right the ship. With games remaining against all the Mountain West leaders except New Mexico, where everything shakes out will still be a mystery until the end of the conference tourney. (Oh, in Las Vegas.)

The Pac-10 looks to be a muddled mess again as UCLA last week looked to break from the pack but the Arizona schools pulled them right back in. Washington currently tops the standings with Arizona St., UCLA, and Cal one game back, and the red-hot Wildcats of Arizona two back.

The aforementioned Canes and Hoyas join Michigan and Oklahoma State on the top line of the NIT projection.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/021609.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT021609.pdf

Bracket - February 13

2009-02-14T08:07:00.000-08:00

The only change to the at-larges was the addition of Kentucky, fresh off its much-needed win over Florida. The Wildcats replaced Michigan, which lost to Michigan State at home.

Clemson leaped to a #2 seed after Louisville, Wake Forest, and UCLA lost.

For the NIT, the top seeds currently projected are Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, UNLV, and Boston College.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/021309.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT021309.pdf