With UNC's victory tonight over Michigan State, we bid farewell to another college basketball season. Before signing off, I've reorganized the pages on the 50webs site a little bit and gave the matrix archives a more consistent look. The links are on the right-hand side of this blog.
I'll see you in November.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
The Bracket Project Predictions for 2009
There are nine quintillion ways a 64-team bracket can turn out. This is one of them. This post will be updated as needed during the tournament (meaning I'll probably be wrong a lot and I'll be scribbling out teams and putting new teams in. Hey, I'm good at picking who goes into the tournament, not who's gonna win).
I was right about Morehead State. I'm 1 for 1! Can I stop now?
OK, guess not. Here we go. (Printable version of my original predictions here)
First Round
MIDWEST
Louisville over Morehead State (Correct)
Ohio State over Siena (Wrong!)
Utah over Arizona (Wrong!)
Wake Forest over Cleveland State (Wrong!)
West Virginia over Dayton (Wrong!)
Kansas over North Dakota State (Correct)
USC over Boston College (Correct)
Michigan State over Robert Morris (Correct)
WEST
Connecticut over Chattanooga (Correct)
BYU over Texas A&M (Wrong!)
Purdue over Northern Iowa (Correct)
Washington over Mississippi State (Correct)
Utah State over Marquette (Wrong!)
Missouri over Cornell (Correct)
California over Maryland (Wrong!)
Memphis over Cal State Northridge (Correct)
EAST
Pittsburgh over E. Tennessee State (Correct)
Tennessee over Oklahoma State (Wrong!)
Wisconsin over Florida State (Correct)
Xavier over Portland State (Correct)
UCLA over Virginia Commonwealth (Correct)
Villanova over American (Correct)
Minnesota over Texas (Wrong!)
Duke over Binghamton (Correct)
SOUTH
North Carolina over Radford (Correct)
Butler over LSU (Wrong!)
Illinois over Western Kentucky (Wrong!)
Gonzaga over Akron (Correct)
Arizona State over Temple (Correct)
Syracuse over Stephen F. Austin (Correct)
Michigan over Clemson (Correct)
Oklahoma over Morgan State (Correct)
Second Round
MIDWEST
Louisville overOhio State Siena (Correct)
Utah over Wake Forest over Arizona over Cleveland State (Correct)
West Virginia over Kansas over Dayton (Correct)
Michigan State over USC (Correct)
WEST
Connecticut overBYU Texas A&M (Correct)
Purdue over Washington (Correct)
Missouri overUtah State Marquette (Correct)
Memphis overCalifornia Maryland (Correct)
EAST
Pittsburgh overTennessee Oklahoma State (Correct)
Xavier over Wisconsin (Correct)
Villanova over UCLA (Correct)
Duke overMinnesota Texas (Correct)
SOUTH
North Carolina overButler LSU (Correct)
Gonzaga overIllinois Western Kentucky (Correct)
Syracuse over Arizona State (Correct)
Oklahoma over Michigan (Correct)
Sweet 16
MIDWEST
Louisville overUtah Arizona (Correct)
Michigan State overWest Virginia Kansas (Correct)
WEST
Connecticut over Purdue (Correct)
Missouri over Memphis (Correct)
EAST
Pittsburgh over Xavier (Correct)
Duke over Villanova (Wrong!)
SOUTH
North Carolina over Gonzaga (Correct)
Syracuse over Oklahoma (Wrong!)
Great Eight
MIDWEST - Louisville over Michigan State (Wrong!)
WEST - Missouri over Connecticut (Wrong!)
EAST - Pittsburgh overDuke Villanova (Wrong!)
SOUTH - North Carolina overSyracuse Oklahoma (Correct)
Final Four
Louisville over Missouri Michigan State over Connecticut
North Carolina overPittsburgh Villanova
Championship
North Carolina overLouisville (I know, not exactly original) Michigan State
I was right about Morehead State. I'm 1 for 1! Can I stop now?
OK, guess not. Here we go. (Printable version of my original predictions here)
First Round
MIDWEST
Louisville over Morehead State (Correct)
Ohio State over Siena (Wrong!)
Utah over Arizona (Wrong!)
Wake Forest over Cleveland State (Wrong!)
West Virginia over Dayton (Wrong!)
Kansas over North Dakota State (Correct)
USC over Boston College (Correct)
Michigan State over Robert Morris (Correct)
WEST
Connecticut over Chattanooga (Correct)
BYU over Texas A&M (Wrong!)
Purdue over Northern Iowa (Correct)
Washington over Mississippi State (Correct)
Utah State over Marquette (Wrong!)
Missouri over Cornell (Correct)
California over Maryland (Wrong!)
Memphis over Cal State Northridge (Correct)
EAST
Pittsburgh over E. Tennessee State (Correct)
Tennessee over Oklahoma State (Wrong!)
Wisconsin over Florida State (Correct)
Xavier over Portland State (Correct)
UCLA over Virginia Commonwealth (Correct)
Villanova over American (Correct)
Minnesota over Texas (Wrong!)
Duke over Binghamton (Correct)
SOUTH
North Carolina over Radford (Correct)
Butler over LSU (Wrong!)
Illinois over Western Kentucky (Wrong!)
Gonzaga over Akron (Correct)
Arizona State over Temple (Correct)
Syracuse over Stephen F. Austin (Correct)
Michigan over Clemson (Correct)
Oklahoma over Morgan State (Correct)
Second Round
MIDWEST
Louisville over
Michigan State over USC (Correct)
WEST
Connecticut over
Purdue over Washington (Correct)
Missouri over
Memphis over
EAST
Pittsburgh over
Xavier over Wisconsin (Correct)
Villanova over UCLA (Correct)
Duke over
SOUTH
North Carolina over
Gonzaga over
Syracuse over Arizona State (Correct)
Oklahoma over Michigan (Correct)
Sweet 16
MIDWEST
Louisville over
Michigan State over
WEST
Connecticut over Purdue (Correct)
Missouri over Memphis (Correct)
EAST
Pittsburgh over Xavier (Correct)
Duke over Villanova (Wrong!)
SOUTH
North Carolina over Gonzaga (Correct)
Syracuse over Oklahoma (Wrong!)
Great Eight
MIDWEST - Louisville over Michigan State (Wrong!)
WEST - Missouri over Connecticut (Wrong!)
EAST - Pittsburgh over
SOUTH - North Carolina over
Final Four
North Carolina over
Championship
North Carolina over
An Alternate View
The people at The Quest For 65 have come up with another way to grade how bracketologists fared on Selection Sunday called the QPI. Check it out here.
Monday, March 16, 2009
The Bracket Project...Projects - 2009
To be honest, I didn't actually see the real bracket until today. I heard Greg Gumbel announce the seed numbers yesterday then moved on to updating the matrix with the rest of the brackets. Some parting thoughts about the bracket before we move on:
San Diego State, Creighton, and St. Mary's were all more deserving than Arizona to be in the bracket but I can understand why they did it. Arizona beat tourney at-large teams Kansas (3), Washington (4), and Gonzaga (4). Creighton beat one at-large team - Dayton, an 11 seed. St. Mary's beat no at-large tourney teams and had 3 cracks at Gonzaga and lost all of them. San Diego State did beat Utah and BYU, but lost head-to-head against St. Mary's and Arizona.
The thing that glares at me about Arizona is something I thought the committee emphasized: who you play and where you play them, and how you are playing down the stretch. They were 2-9 on the road with its only wins against Oregon and Oregon State. They followed up a 7-game win streak by losing 5 of their last 6.
Location will always be a problem for the committee and this year moreso because most of the sites are so far from the schools. Portland, Boise, and Miami barely have any tourney schools near them but all are hosting this year, creating weird travel situations such as Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah traveling to Miami, Florida State traveling to Boise, UCLA to Philadelphia, and so on. The NCAA should limit the far-out destinations to just one or two a year.
Not too many complaints about seeding...Boston College was too high. I thought they were closer to the bubble due to their rocky finish but beating Duke and UNC helps. Wisconsin was too low. I heard they were a true 11 so maybe that's okay. I guess I didn't penalize them enough for the 6-game losing streak during conference play.
My no rhyme or reason, straight from the gut predictions will be out Wednesday and will be updated with new predictions as we move along through the tournament. Except for the Elite Eight round. I will be in Reno/Tahoe with spotty Internet access. Hopefully, I can make it to a sportsbook to catch the games or a hot spot where I can update the blog.
My first prediction: Morehead State over Alabama State in the play-in game. Let's hope I don't start 0 for 1.
San Diego State, Creighton, and St. Mary's were all more deserving than Arizona to be in the bracket but I can understand why they did it. Arizona beat tourney at-large teams Kansas (3), Washington (4), and Gonzaga (4). Creighton beat one at-large team - Dayton, an 11 seed. St. Mary's beat no at-large tourney teams and had 3 cracks at Gonzaga and lost all of them. San Diego State did beat Utah and BYU, but lost head-to-head against St. Mary's and Arizona.
The thing that glares at me about Arizona is something I thought the committee emphasized: who you play and where you play them, and how you are playing down the stretch. They were 2-9 on the road with its only wins against Oregon and Oregon State. They followed up a 7-game win streak by losing 5 of their last 6.
Location will always be a problem for the committee and this year moreso because most of the sites are so far from the schools. Portland, Boise, and Miami barely have any tourney schools near them but all are hosting this year, creating weird travel situations such as Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah traveling to Miami, Florida State traveling to Boise, UCLA to Philadelphia, and so on. The NCAA should limit the far-out destinations to just one or two a year.
Not too many complaints about seeding...Boston College was too high. I thought they were closer to the bubble due to their rocky finish but beating Duke and UNC helps. Wisconsin was too low. I heard they were a true 11 so maybe that's okay. I guess I didn't penalize them enough for the 6-game losing streak during conference play.
My no rhyme or reason, straight from the gut predictions will be out Wednesday and will be updated with new predictions as we move along through the tournament. Except for the Elite Eight round. I will be in Reno/Tahoe with spotty Internet access. Hopefully, I can make it to a sportsbook to catch the games or a hot spot where I can update the blog.
My first prediction: Morehead State over Alabama State in the play-in game. Let's hope I don't start 0 for 1.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
The 2009 Bracket Matrix Post-Mortem
Overall, the bracketologists' performance was down from last year as this year's average Paymon score was 303.6, about 5.5 points below last year's average bracket. Here are the highlights:
Bracketologists who were 65 out of 65:
Bracketography, Bryce Durgin, FOX Sports, and Round Table Sports
Top brackets with the most teams seeded correctly:
Rivals, Bracketville, and Bracketology 101 tied with 35. Right behind were Bracketography, Baseline Stats, Jerry Palm, The Bracket Board, and Hofstad at the Online Sports Fanatic with 34.
Top brackets with the most teams seeded within one of their actual seed:
Bracketography and March Madness All Season had 62. VTS follows with 61 and College Sports Fans had 60.
Finally, the highest Paymon scores this year:
Bracketography - 325
Rivals - Mike Huguenin - 318
Baseline Stats - 317
Bracketville - 316
Bracketology 101, Jerry Palm, and The Bracket Board - 315
Bracketologists who were 65 out of 65:
Bracketography, Bryce Durgin, FOX Sports, and Round Table Sports
Top brackets with the most teams seeded correctly:
Rivals, Bracketville, and Bracketology 101 tied with 35. Right behind were Bracketography, Baseline Stats, Jerry Palm, The Bracket Board, and Hofstad at the Online Sports Fanatic with 34.
Top brackets with the most teams seeded within one of their actual seed:
Bracketography and March Madness All Season had 62. VTS follows with 61 and College Sports Fans had 60.
Finally, the highest Paymon scores this year:
Bracketography - 325
Rivals - Mike Huguenin - 318
Baseline Stats - 317
Bracketville - 316
Bracketology 101, Jerry Palm, and The Bracket Board - 315
Bracket - FINAL
This is the most uncomfortable I've ever been after submitting my final bracket. Mississippi State and USC took the spots Creighton and St. Mary's were desperately holding onto. We'll see if I was right to let San Diego State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Dayton, Boston College, and Texas A&M (not in that order) keep their spots.
THE FINAL NCAA AND NIT BRACKETS
THE FINAL NCAA AND NIT BRACKETS
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Bracket - March 14
Florida and South Carolina faltered in the SEC tournament and now find themselves out of the field. St. Mary's and Maryland are back in. The Terps' stay may be short-lived depending on today's game vs. Duke and the state of the bubble.
Temple/Duquesne stole a bid with their wins over Xavier and Dayton and I decided to take Penn State's spot away. They suffer from the same problem South Carolina and Providence have: decent conference record but terrible non-conference performance.
Michigan State, with their loss to Ohio State, doesn't really have a shot at the #1 seed. Louisville, Connecticut, and Memphis are now fighting for the last two spots.
THE NCAA AND NIT BRACKETS FOR 3/14
Temple/Duquesne stole a bid with their wins over Xavier and Dayton and I decided to take Penn State's spot away. They suffer from the same problem South Carolina and Providence have: decent conference record but terrible non-conference performance.
Michigan State, with their loss to Ohio State, doesn't really have a shot at the #1 seed. Louisville, Connecticut, and Memphis are now fighting for the last two spots.
THE NCAA AND NIT BRACKETS FOR 3/14
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