Monday, January 28, 2008

Florida has been criticized this year for its soft non-conference schedule, losing both of its marquee games to Florida State and Ohio State. However, its run through the SEC schedule highlighted by a beatdown of Vanderbilt pushes the Gators to a 6-seed. Among other movers up were UConn with its road win over Indiana after a shaky start to its conference schedule, Mississippi State, who took care of their rival Ole Miss, and Purdue, who have run out to a 6-1 start in the Big Ten with its only loss to Michigan State by 3 points.

Three teams that looked good but had weak computer numbers suffered losses that hurt their seed tremendously or even knocked them out. Dayton has lost 3 straight with its last one against Richmond most troubling. They still have a RPI of 17 but suddenly need to win in a conference where 7 teams are fighting for 3-4 spots in the field. Arizona State has also lost 3 straight, including the last two at home against the Washington schools. They have been knocked out of the bracket as well as Villanova, with losses to Rutgers and Notre Dame.

Bracket - January 28

Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, SEC - 6, Big 10 - 5, Pac-10 - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, Missouri Valley - 2, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New to this week's bracket:
Binghamton, BYU, Kent State, Lamar, Marist, Mississippi State, Purdue, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, UNLV, Wagner

Out of this week's bracket:
Akron, Arizona State, UMBC, Massachusetts, Oregon, Providence, Quinnipiac, San Diego State, Siena, Stephen F. Austin, Villanova

Last 4 Teams In:
St. Joseph's, Illinois State, BYU, Syracuse

Last 4 Teams Out:
Massachusetts, Oregon, Creighton, Duquesne

Monday, January 21, 2008

I leave for two days and look what happens...upsets galore. UNC and UCLA falls to Maryland and USC respectively. The fact that this occurred on their home courts really hurts as they drop from their cushy #1 seed confines. In their place are Tennessee and Duke, both of which managed to take care of business against Ohio State and Clemson respectively.

Trying to figure out the Big East is about to get more complicated if the Bearcats of Cincinnati continue their hot streak. A seven-loss non-conference start prevents them from even being considered for the NIT, but if they continue to beat the likes of Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova, and Pittsburgh, they could be a solid NIT team or even a NCAA bubble team. That would be an amazing accomplishment coming off a 2-14 Big East record last year.

Arkansas was the last team in, beating out Mississippi State. The Razorbacks have dropped their last two against middle-of-the-pack SEC competition but still have a slightly better resume. California and Florida State dropped out completely. The Golden Bears got swept at home against the Arizona schools and in the Pac-10, getting swept at home against anybody is something you can't afford to let happen. The Seminoles are riding a 3-game losing streak with the latest to Wake Forest.

Florida State joins 6 other ACC teams in my NIT bracket. It probably won't happen at the end of the season, but with nobody distinguishing themselves from the pack except powerhouses Duke and UNC, it might be tough for the ACC to get at least 5 into the field this year.

Bracket - January 21

Multi-bid Conferences:
Big East - 9, Pacific-10 - 7, Big 12 - 6, SEC - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, Big Ten - 4, Missouri Valley - 2, West Coast - 2

New to this week's bracket:
Akron, Alabama State, Davidson, Kansas State, UMBC, Oral Roberts, Providence, Quinnipiac, Siena, Stephen F. Austin, USC, Virginia Commonwealth

Out of this week's bracket:
Arkansas-Pine Bluff, California, Chattanooga, Delaware, Florida State, Hartford, IUPUI, Kent State, McNeese State, Niagara, Syracuse, Wagner

Last 4 Teams In:
Louisville, Providence, Florida, Arkansas

Last 4 Teams Out:
Creighton, Kent State, Syracuse, UNLV

This week's bracket in *.pdf form

Thursday, January 17, 2008

I will be in Lake Tahoe for the weekend so expect the next update to the matrix sometime Sunday. The next bracket will be released on Monday, its normal day.
James Worthy. NCAA Champion. 3-Time NBA Champion. NBA Hall-of-Famer. Bracketologist?

I was alerted by a reader that he had his own bracket projection at, where he works as a basketball analyst for the L.A. CBS/KCAL stations there. How good is he? You be the judge as he has been added to the matrix.

Monday, January 14, 2008

New to this week's bracket:
Austin Peay, Florida, Hartford, Illinois State, Jacksonville, Lafayette, Louisville, McNeese State, NC-Asheville, Northern Arizona, San Diego State, Utah State

Out of this week's bracket:
Boston University, East Tennessee State, High Point, Holy Cross, Montana State, Nevada, New Mexico, Providence, Sam Houston State, Southeast Missouri State, UNLV, Virginia

Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 9, Pac-10 - 7, ACC - 5, Big 12 - 5, SEC - 5, Atlantic 10 - 4, Big 10 - 4, Missouri Valley - 2, West Coast - 2

The Mountain West and ACC gave up spots to the SEC and Missouri Valley this week. The MWC really took a beating with losses by San Diego State (Northern Colorado), BYU (Wake Forest), UNLV (Air Force), and New Mexico (San Diego State). Losses to Xavier and Duke are respectable for Virginia, but still puts them on the other side of the cut line. To fill in, we have the Florida Gators, who haven't played a good non-conference schedule, but did win their first two conference games and look to only become stronger in a weak SEC. Illinois State joins surprising Drake in the bracket.

To view this week's bracket in pdf form, click here.

Monday, January 7, 2008

The bracket for January 7 has been updated.

New additions: Arizona State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, CSU-Northridge, Chattanooga, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana State, New Mexico, Oregon, South Alabama

Dropped out: Creighton, George Mason, Georgia Southern, Jackson State, Montana, New Orleans, San Diego State, UC Santa Barbara, USC, Valparaiso

UCLA takes over the 4th #1 seed from Washington State after two very convincing wins on the road over Stanford and Cal. The overall strength of the Pac-10 nets them 7 teams in this bracket with USC the last team out after two losses to Stanford and Cal. The only conference with more teams is the Big East with 9. No one is standing out from the pack in this conference but parity rules.

The rest: ACC-6, Big 12-5, Atlantic 10-4, Big 10-4, SEC-4, Mountain West-2, West Coast-2.

This week's bracket is on the main site and at

Starting next week, the NIT bracket will be produced.