Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Bracket - December 29

The newest bracket was actually posted yesterday so you can look at those by clicking on the usual links.

The biggest mover was Minnesota. In just a little more than a year, Tubby Smith has his team contending in an unusually strong Big 11. However, their season-to-date hasn't yielded a quality road win so far so don't crown them yet (the Louisville win was on a neutral court). Home dates against Michigan State and Ohio State await this week.

Stanford jumps in this week as they are the only undefeated team in the Pac-10 and they just beat Texas Tech by 45 at home. But with only this and a Northwestern win, poor performances against the Arizona schools this weekend will kick them out.

The matrix gets updated on a (mostly) daily basis starting Monday. Also, brackets can only be at most one week old to stay in the matrix on a particular day.


Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Special Christmas Eve Update

There was a spike in traffic yesterday and that could mean only one thing...Joe Lunardi updated his bracket. So that plus an update to the best bracket site of the past few years, Bracketology 101, prompted me to update the matrix earlier than the scheduled Monday update.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Monday, December 15, 2008

Bracket - December 15

I've added a new page to the Bracket Project. The tracker will track a team's progress in the matrix over the course of the season.

Ohio State must have had arguably the best 3-game stretch of the season so far. Wins over Miami (FLA), Notre Dame, and Butler have vaulted them up my bracket to a 4 seed. Other teams making a move up are Arizona (with its upset win over Gonzaga. However, it'll take a bit more to get that disastrous UAB ending out of my end), Michigan (giant-killer), and Missouri (convincing wins over USC and Cal).

On the flip side, Kansas and Florida are looking a little weak so far this year after two losses for both teams (Kansas to UMass and Syracuse and Florida to Syracuse and Florida State) and they also share only one quality win over Washington. In addition, Wazzu just lost two straight at home, albeit to Baylor and Gonzaga. For now, they're out of the bracket.


Monday, December 8, 2008

BCS Again

A short detour to the BCS...last year, I described what I'd want to see in a playoff system in college football. While a playoff will happen at some point in our lives, the BCS is here to stay for the foreseeable future. So for my second alternative...a baby step toward a playoff: the plus-one.

Steps that should be taken:

1. Keep the 10-team format, but upgrade an existing bowl to BCS status. The Cotton Bowl, once a premier game, has faded in recent years. The move to the new Cowboys Stadium should kick-start excitement about the game and allow it to be a prime candidate to become a BCS game.

2. The highest non-BCS conference champion should qualify for the BCS system provided it is ranked higher than at least one BCS conference champion. If a BCS conference champion is ranked outside the BCS top 25, then the non-BCS qualifier need only to be ranked in the top 25.

3. Abolish the two-team maximum per conference. Last year, I said it was okay but after seeing Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma tie for the top spot in the Big 12, all three were deserving to be part of the system.

4. After the conference champions have been selected, choose the highest ranked teams remaining to fill the remaining spots.

5. Extract the Big Ten/Pac 10 teams to play in the Rose Bowl. The top 4 remaining teams will play each other (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3). The bottom 4 teams will also play each other (5 vs. 6, 7 vs. 8). Determine the matchups first and then they will be assigned to the bowl with the highest ranked team's conference tie-in.

6. After the BCS games have been played, run the polls and computers one more time and determine two teams to play for the national championship.

How would this work?

This year, you have 6 conference champions (Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Penn State, Cincinnati, and Virginia Tech). Utah qualifies as the highest non-BCS qualifier. The remaining teams that qualify are Texas, Alabama and Texas Tech.

These matchups would be produced:
Rose: USC vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Sugar: Florida vs. Texas
Orange: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
Cotton: Utah vs. Texas Tech

After you play the games, run the system again and produce a national championship matchup. This year, as a result, Texas would have gotten a chance to play for a national championship and Texas Tech would get to play in a big-money game.

Okay, back to basketball. A new bracket and matrix update comes December 15.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Bracket - December 1

A few weeks have passed in the regular season so it's time for another bracket. Losses by Louisville (to Western Kentucky) and UCLA (to Michigan) knock them out of the top line and replaced by Pittsburgh and Duke.

Gonzaga is a pleasant surprise for the first month of the season but its challenging schedule is far from over with games against Indiana, Arizona, Connecticut, and a rematch with Tennnessee still upcoming. Syracuse also looks pretty good with wins over Florida and Kansas. Two Big 10 teams made their way into the bracket as well with Michigan posting the big upset of UCLA and Illinois with good wins at Vanderbilt and against Kent State and Tulsa.

I knocked UNLV out of the bracket. Losing two at home to middle-of-the-road competition (Cal and Cincinnati) is a recipe for disaster. Without a road win at Louisville later this month, it'll be an uphill climb to earn an at-large bid. St. Mary's is also out, saddled by a loss to UTEP and a weak schedule all around. Wins against Kent State (away), San Diego State (neutral), Oregon (away), and of course Gonzaga will help its cause.


Monday, November 10, 2008

The 2008-09 Bracket Matrix Links

If you're a contributor, click here for some formatting information to make my life easier.

This list is now locked in for 2009. Sites which do not appear here but did in the past should email me to be included in the 2009 matrix.

As usual, brackets must have been updated within one week to appear in the matrix.

If I counted correctly, 78 sites are currently being tracked for The Bracket Matrix:

The Bracket Project (BP)
ESPN - Joe Lunardi
CBS Sportsline - Jerry Palm who can also be found at CollegeRPI.com
FOX Sports on MSN - Frank Burlison
Rivals - Mike Huguenin
Sporting News - Ryan Fagan
Sports Illustrated - Andy Glockner
Yahoo! Sports - Brad Evans

Baseline Stats - Brendon Desrochers
Basketball Predictions (BaP)
Beating the Experts (BtE)
Bleacher Report - Mike Alessandrini (BR-MA), Matt Browning (BR-MB), Marc Daley (BR-MD), Jameson Fleming (BR-JF), Jonathan Goodman (BR-JG), Curt Hogg (BR-CH), Gary Lloyd (BR-GL), Shaun Reilly (BR-SR), Jordan Schwartz (BR-JS), and Andy Thompson (BR-AT)
Blogging the Bracket (BtB)
The Bracketeer (TB)
The Bracketeer - Bluejay Basketball (TBBB)
Bracketology 65 (B65)
Bracketology 101 (B101)
Bracketville (BV)
Bracket Bash (BB)
The Bracket Board (TBB)
Bracket Dobber (BD)
Bracket Predictions (BrP)
The Bracket of Truth - Mike (BT-M) and Jacob (BT-J)
Bryce's Bracket Predictions
College Hoops Net - March Madness All Season (MMAS)
College Hoops Net - Shawn Siegel (CHN)
Cookin' Up College Hoops (Cook)
The Eclecticist (TE)
The HoopGroup's Facts & Bracks (F&B)
Howard Salwasser's Bracket Watch (BW)
Joey's Sports Blog
March Madness 09 (MM09)
Mike on Sports
New York Daily News - Hoops on Campus (NYDN)
New York Post - Brian Costello (NYP)
Nuge's Bracketology
Online Sports Fanatic - Daniel Evans (OSF-E), Hofstad (OSF-H), Schwader (OSF-S)
PHSports - Where Sport and Thought Intersect
Rainmaker's Bracketology
RoundTableSports (RTS)
Rush the Court - Zach Hayes
Schmolik 64
The Schoeneck Republic (TSR)
Storming the Floor
Washington Times' D1Scourse - Patrick Stevens (WT)

Beer's Bracket
Bracketography (Graph)
Bracket WAG
Collegesports-fans.com (CSF)
The Columbus Dispatch - Bill Rabinowitz (CD)
Coolpohle's Bracketology (CB) which can also be found at A10CollegeHoops.com
Crashing the Dance (CtD)
Feature Presentation Online - Breaking Down the Bracket (FPO)
The Hoops Report - Ryan Feldman (THR)
Jason's Bracketogoly (JB)
JuniorNoboa's Bracketology (JN)
Lobofan2003's Bracketology
Mackinder's Bracketography (Mac)
MAG NCAA Tournament Projections
Maize and Blue Matters (M&B)
NCAA Bracket (NB)
RPI Forecast
VanDongen Computer Rankings (VCR)
VTS Bracketmaker
Warren Nolan's Fully Sports (WN)

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Pre-season Bracket

I don't like doing pre-season brackets. How do you know where anyone will end up when zero games have been played? But I will admit that the best columns writers write is when they look back and see how wrong they were. So clicking on the main page will take you to my starting point for the year. UNC, UConn, UCLA, and Louisville occupy the top spots while Oklahoma State, UAB and New Mexico are on the bubble.

The first matrix will be published Monday night and will be refreshed every Monday night until January when I'll move to a daily schedule. Pre-season brackets will be valid in the matrix until December 1, which coincides with my next bracket release.


Monday, October 27, 2008

2008-09 Schedule

Welcome back everyone.

The Bracket Matrix goes live November 10 with updates every Monday until January 5, when the updates will occur once a day everyday.

My own bracket projections will be updated as follows:

November 10
December 1, 15, 29
January 5, 12, 19, 26
February 2, 6, 9, 13, 16, 20, 23, 27
March 2, 6, 9, 13, 14, 15

Saturday, June 28, 2008


The 2007-08 season is over and now it's time to get ready for the 2008-09 season. That won't start until November 1.

Join the newly created Facebook group and discuss the upcoming season.

Are you a bracketologist and would like to be a part of The Bracket Matrix this season? Please read the following:

1. You need to set up a web site to place your bracket that will be consistent throughout the season. A blog will do. A web site will most definitely do. A bracket posted on a message board will not do. The link will change frequently and will get lost in various discussions, making it difficult for the average reader to find it. (Exception: A message board devoted exclusively to bracketology.)

2. You have to tell me where your site is. I don't have a sixth sense when it comes to finding these things. I rely on you and readers like you to tell me what kind of sites to add to this page.

3. The NCAA sets up procedures and principles for building a bracket. Read them! A seriously flawed bracket won't be posted. However, if your seedings are out of the norm, I'll still most likely post it provided that the principles are followed and you have an explanation as to why you've built the bracket like you did. I reserve the right to not post a bracket with something like a winless team as a #1 seed.

4. Please date-stamp your bracket. Brackets of a certain age will be removed from the list, and if there's no date-stamp, obviously I can't tell when your bracket was updated.

5. To make it easier on me, please format your bracket so that at least half of it can be seen on the screen at any one time. You can make it even easier for me by publishing a seed list of your 65 teams. Only brackets that seed at least 48 teams will be listed in the matrix.

6. No new sites will be added to the 2009 page after March 1 unless you have appeared in previous versions of this page, in which case, you will be grandfathered in. In addition, no bracket will be accepted to the final matrix of the season after the beginning of the Selection Sunday show.

7. Your bracket will be updated in the matrix only once per day at a time of my choosing. Exceptions to this rule are brackets with a national following and the top 5 performers in the Bracket Matrix from the previous season according to the Paymon rubric. More details will be forthcoming in January.

8. I'm only one guy. If this could pay me what I get at my regular job, I'd update this site 24/7. That simply is not the case. If someone else can do this better, I'll gladly step aside, but from the looks of it, I'm the only (crazy) one. So if you don't see your site on here, an update hasn't been done for a while or I don't respond to you, I hope you'll understand why.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

The Final Four and the Championship Game

Mike Montgomery lands at Cal. Like I said before, good fit.

The games have already started. So here, in order of likelihood, is who I think will win it all to close out the season.

2. North Carolina
3. Kansas
4. Memphis

Saturday, March 29, 2008

2008 Bracket Project Predictions - Elite Eight

I, like a lot of people, love the work Gus Johnson does when he announces games. Who can forget that Gonzaga-UCLA game? Anyway, this year, the tournament has dealt him a bad hand. In the 8 games he has broadcast, the closest margin of victory has been 11 points. Hopefully, Kansas-Davidson will give us some magic. Now, the picks:

North Carolina over Louisville
UCLA over Xavier
Texas over Memphis
Kansas over Davidson

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

2008 Bracket Project Predictions - Sweet 16

Before we get to the Sweet 16 picks, some news from my alma mater. Ben Braun was "relieved of his duties" as head coach at California and I wish him a fond farewell from his lair at Cal. He was the right man to lead the team after the Todd Bozeman scandal. But 12 years passed and so did the rest of the Pac-10 around him. But he won a national championship!!! Yeah, but that was the NIT. I'm sure with the system he has, he will land on his feet in no time at another school but his knock was that he couldn't develop the talent around him and that was no more apparent than this year with two, possibly three, NBA draft picks on the floor but a 9th place Pac-10 finish to show for it. Mike Montgomery seems to be the top candidate out there and that wouldn't be a bad move.

On to the Sweet 16, where in my bracket below, my Final Four is still possible so that's good, right?


North Carolina over Washington State
Louisville over Tennessee


Kansas over Villanova
Wisconsin over Davidson


UCLA over Western Kentucky
Xavier over West Virginia


Memphis over Michigan State
Texas over Stanford

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Bracketology on Wikipedia

UPDATE: Bracketology has been taken off the articles for deletion list.

I guess technically there really isn't a term to describe what me and 50 other people do over the course of a college basketball season but the most accepted word is bracketology which has its origins from Joe Lunardi at ESPN.

Obviously, the concept is very popular and rightly deserves its own Wikipedia page at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bracketology. However, there is a push to delete the page off Wikipedia. It is, as you probably know, a community-run site. If you would like to add your voice to the discussion, go to the page above and click on the links on top. Keep in mind it isn't a majority vote on whether or not to keep it, rather a forum for discussion with a decision made on a later date.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

The Bracket Project Predictions - 2008 2nd Round

Wow, that 1st round was fun. I feel sorry for the guy in the ESPN tourney challenge who was 28 for 28 heading into the final four games of the night. Sure, he got Louisville and Memphis. But he missed Arkansas. And then, Villanova won, which really screwed him over since he had Clemson winning it all.

Now for the second round:


North Carolina over Arkansas
Washington State over Notre Dame
Louisville over Oklahoma
Tennessee over Butler


Kansas over UNLV
Villanova over Siena
Wisconsin over Kansas State
Georgetown over Davidson


Memphis over Mississippi State
Michigan State over Pittsburgh
Marquette over Stanford
Texas over Miami (FLA.)


UCLA over Texas A&M
San Diego over Western Kentucky
Xavier over Purdue
Duke over West Virginia

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

2008 Bracket Project Predictions

These picks should be good for at least a few hours I hope. (Seriously, Yahoo could give away $5 billion for a perfect bracket...I don't think it's ever going to happen.)

This year, with the weak bubble, I'm not so sure about the number of upsets this year. I think it'll be chalky like last year. Siena over Vanderbilt looks enticing as does Winthrop over Wazzu but I'm not picking them. So here we go.

First Round


North Carolina over Mount St. Mary's
Arkansas over Indiana
Notre Dame over George Mason
Washington State over Winthrop
Oklahoma over St. Joseph's
Louisville over Boise State
Butler over South Alabama
Tennessee over American


Kansas over Portland State
Kent State over UNLV
Clemson over Villanova
Vanderbilt over Siena
USC over Kansas State
Wisconsin over Cal State Fullerton
Davidson over Gonzaga
Georgetown over Maryland-Baltimore County


Memphis over Texas-Arlington
Oregon over Mississippi State
Michigan State over Temple
Pittsburgh over Oral Roberts
Marquette over Kentucky
Stanford over Cornell
St. Mary's (CA) over Miami (FLA)
Texas over Austin Peay


UCLA over Mississippi Valley State
Texas A&M over BYU
Drake over Western Kentucky
Connecticut over San Diego
Baylor over Purdue
Xavier over Georgia
Arizona over West Virginia
Duke over Belmont

Second Round


North Carolina over Arkansas
Washington State over Notre Dame
Louisville over Oklahoma
Tennessee over Butler


Kansas over Kent State
Clemson over Vanderbilt
Wisconsin over USC
Georgetown over Davidson


Memphis over Oregon
Michigan State over Pittsburgh
Marquette over Stanford
Texas over St. Mary's (CA)


UCLA over Texas A&M
Drake over Connecticut
Xavier over Baylor
Duke over Arizona

Sweet 16


North Carolina over Washington State
Louisville over Tennessee


Clemson over Kansas
Wisconsin over Georgetown


Memphis over Michigan State
Texas over Marquette


UCLA over Drake
Xavier over Duke

Elite Eight

North Carolina over Louisville
Wisconsin over Clemson
Texas over Memphis
UCLA over Xavier

Final Four

North Carolina over Wisconsin
UCLA over Texas

National Championship Game

UCLA over North Carolina

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Bracket Project Leaderboard - 2006 and 2007

Some people have asked what the rankings were in previous years. Using the links on the right hand side of the blog, we get this:

2007 Best Overall Bracket - Paymon Scoring (Parrish Rank in Parentheses)
1. The Bracket Project (1)
2. Gary Parrish at CBS Sportsline (2t)
3t. Bracketology 101 (2t)
3t. The Backboard (5t)
5t. Bubble Teams (2t)
5t. Netwire/The Meaningful Collateral (5t)

2006 Best Overall Bracket - Paymon Scoring (Parrish Rank in Parentheses)
1t. Bracketology 101 (1t)
1t. Bracket Racket (1t)
3. Warren Nolan (4t)
4. Joe Lunardi at ESPN (4t)
5t. March Madness All Season (4t)
5t. Bubble Teams (3)
5t. NCAA Hoops Digest (8t)
5t. Gregg Doyel at CBS Sportsline (8t)

Sunday, March 16, 2008

The 2008 Bracket Matrix Leaderboard

It was personally my best year ever at The Bracket Project, but looking at the results, I guess I'll be relinquishing my title this year. So without much further ado...

Brackets with all 65 teams picked:

Joe Lunardi at ESPN, Jerry Palm, Bracketology3, Shawn Siegel at CHN, BracketDobber, and The Hoop Group's Facts & Bracks

Top brackets with the most teams seeded exactly right:

(Note: The Bracket Matrix consensus of 53 brackets got 42 exactly right.)

March Madness All Season: 41
Bracketology 101: 40
DantheMan4250: 39
Facts & Bracks: 38
Bracket WAG: 38

Top brackets with the most teams seeded within one of the actual seed:

Bracketology 101: 60
Mike on Sports: 60
March Madness All Season: 59
CollegeHoopsNet: 59
7 tied at 58

Top overall brackets (Gary Parrish scoring):

Bracketology 101: 164
March Madness All Season: 164
Mike on Sports: 161
CollegeHoopsNet: 161
Bracket WAG: 160
Facts & Bracks: 160

(Note: The Bracket Matrix consensus of 53 brackets got a 163.)

Top overall brackets (Paymon scoring):

March Madness All Season: 333
Bracketology 101 : 332
CollegeHoopsNet: 328
Facts & Bracks: 328
Mike on Sports: 326

(Note: The Bracket Matrix consensus of 53 brackets got a 333.)

The full matrix can be found here.

Final Bracket - March 16

The new bracket is up at http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/FINAL031608.pdf

I couldn't figure out who to take out between Villanova and Arizona State. With Temple winning the A-10 title and Georgia taking the SEC title, they're both out.

I think, I think...


After two days of success, I can't upload to my server at all. As a result, I'll be working on the mirror site all day. If the original site becomes functional again, I'll start updating it but I highly doubt they can fix it before the Selection Show. So please use these links for today.

The Bracket Project - http://bracketproject.50webs.com/index.html

NIT - http://bracketproject.50webs.com/nit.html

The Bracket Matrix + Bubble - http://bracketproject.50webs.com/comparison.htm

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Bracket - March 15

Today's bracket is posted on the main page. The next one will be released after the Big Ten Championship.

Ohio State missed out on their opportunity to solidify their standing with the committee. Arizona State moves back into the bracket.

Virginia Tech totally deserves a bid but I don't think it will based on the fact that their best win was against Miami on a neutral court. The Penn State and Old Dominion losses are head-scratchers.

Teams to watch for are Temple, Illinois, Minnesota, and Akron. These teams are threatening to win their conference tournaments and take away an at-large spot.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Bracket - March 14

I'll be quick about this.

Due to almost all the bubble teams losing, there wasn't much movement. Villanova and Syracuse played virtually a play-in game and Nova won so they move into the bracket. St. Joseph's gets in for Arizona State but ASU may get in as I study the Pac-10 situation a little bit more. At first glance, it will be either Oregon or ASU but not both. I'll give a more complete opinion tomorrow.

After the bracket was made, St. Joe's did beat Xavier, so now they're most definitely in.

Also after the bracket was made, Ohio State lost to Michigan State, putting their tourney hopes at risk.

Now the rundown...bubble edition.

Probably in:
Baylor, UNLV, Arkansas, Kentucky, St. Joseph's

In for now, but no more games to impress the committee:
South Alabama, Villanova, Illinois State, Oregon, Ohio State

Out, but still have games left:
Virginia Tech, Temple

Out, must rely on other teams to mess up:
Arizona State, New Mexico, Syracuse, Dayton, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Florida State, Creighton, Southern Illinois, VCU

FTP Woes

Some FTP issues continue on the atspace server so in the meantime, the matrix can be accessed on this site as well.


Update: Everything is working for now, but I'll keep this page live just in case there future mishaps between now and Sunday.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

The Bracket Matrix

To those finding this site for the first time, welcome. About 80% of the visitors to the site are looking for the vast database of bracket projections. That can be found at The Bracket Matrix.

In previous years, it was called "Comparing the Projected Seeds" and 2006 and 2007 versions can be accessed through links on the right.

New brackets will be produced starting Friday and the matrix will be updated periodically as conference champions are crowned.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Bracket - March 10

After I finished my bracket, I felt very good about the teams I picked. For the first time in weeks, there was a dividing line between the haves and have-nots. Ohio State and Syracuse won big games over ranked teams to get in. Virginia Tech, Maryland, and St. Joe's lost games that put them outside the bubble. Heck, Joe Lunardi and I have the same field of 65 (albeit with different seeds...Davidson with a 7...are you serious?).

Then, I've started watching the Monday games. San Diego triumphs over Gonzaga. Middle Tennessee beats South Alabama. Both Gonzaga and South Alabama figure to have at-large bids which means two spots are now taken by conference qualifiers. The next bracket will be published Friday so there figures to be plenty of changes between now and then.

Now the rundown...


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Pac-10 - 7, Big 12 - 6, Big 10 - 5, SEC - 5, ACC - 4, Mountain West - 3, Atlantic 10 - 2, Missouri Valley - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:
George Mason, Ohio State, Sacred Heart, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, Utah State, Winthrop

Teams out of the bracket:
Boise State, Lamar, NC-Asheville, Robert Morris, Siena, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech

Last 4 teams in:
Oregon, Ohio State, Syracuse, Arizona State

Last 4 teams out:
Mississippi, Western Kentucky, Villanova, Dayton

Next 4 teams out:
Virginia Tech, Florida State, St. Joseph's, UAB

Sunday, March 9, 2008

The Bracket Project

A short write-up about me and the site from Stephen Wiseman of The State in South Carolina.


It’s the time of year when brackets and bubbles are the hot topic of conversation among college basketball fans.

To have an informed opinion about which teams should make the NCAA tournament’s field of 65, fans can point and click their way around the Internet all day looking at projected brackets.

But there’s a way to postpone carpel tunnel syndrome and save yourself some time.

Three years ago, an unemployed Brian Phan turned his keen eye toward the plethora of brackets available. He started The Bracket Project to produce a place where all available brackets could be viewed at bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

“This was a nice time-killer while looking for jobs,” Phan said via e-mail this week.

Since the site went live in January 2005, it has grown into a must-click site for any college basketball fan.

Phan, 25 and working as a business analyst in California’s defense industry, saw the site draw its 500,000th hit on Feb. 27. It averages around 6,000 hits a day and climbing. It drew 11,000 hits last Monday and that figure will grow as Selection Sunday draws closer.

Simplicity and ease of use is what draws so many users.

Bracketproject.com’s front page has links to the 52 brackets Phan analyzes. They range from ESPN, Fox, CBSSports.com and Yahoo.com, to independent analysts like Jerry Palm (collegeRPI.com) and Warren Nolan (warrennolan.com/basketball).

He also differentiates between sites that act as if selection Sunday were that day, and the ones that project results to formulate their bracket.

Below that is the bracket matrix, which allows fans to get a quick view of where their teams stand.

The matrix shows the date when the various brackets were updated and shows where each team is seeded in that bracket.

The team’s name is listed, along with its conference, the average seed and the number of brackets that include that team.

Fans worried about where their particular team stands can look at how many brackets include them to ease or add to their worries.

Phan started the site when he attempted to project the brackets himself. But he said he quickly realized it needed a hook to attract attention. That’s when the bracket matrix was born.

By the time North Carolina was beating Illinois in the national championship game at St. Louis in April 2005, Phan had found a job and planned to put his bracketologist days in his past.

His growing legion of fans had other ideas.

“The next season,” Phan said, “I started getting e-mails asking when the site would start up again. I didn’t have plans to but the demand was there, so I did it again.”

As the site’s traffic has grown, Phan has sold some advertising. But he hasn’t quit his day job and doesn’t expect to.

“I didn’t do this for the money,” he said.

Phan doesn’t envision big changes to the site. He may switch to a different server. But the site’s main job is to be a one-stop for bracket information and that won’t change.

“The core of the site will remain,” Phan said, “since I’m sure that’s what the people want.”

Championship Week Update Schedule

(Sigh) Championship Week. It's when I trade in my life to update this site. Here's how it's going to go down this week.

The bracket:
New brackets will be published Monday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday right before the selection show.

Doing brackets everyday this week seems like a waste of time since the big teams won't play until later in the week. Besides, I'll be busy with...

...the matrix:
From now until Friday, there will be two updates a day to the matrix, one before 3 pm ET/12 pm PT and one after the day's games have ended. On Monday and Friday, there will be a special update around 9 pm ET/6 pm PT to accomodate the number of brackets that are updated on those days.

On Saturday and Sunday, the matrix will be updated as championship games finish. With the Selection Show at 6 pm ET/3 pm PT, the last update will be published 30 minutes earlier.

Bracketologists please note: Though the last update to the matrix will be 30 minutes before the Selection Sunday show, you still have up to the start of the Selection Sunday show to publish your final bracket for inclusion into the final matrix. To make it easier for me to spot, please clearly denote that your bracket is FINAL or e-mail me saying so.

The final matrix will be updated Sunday night with results appearing right here on the blog with scoring calculated using methods by both Gary Parrish at CBS Sports (March 13th entry) and Paymon at PH Sports.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Bracket - March 7

Oregon's win over Arizona State creates a 3-team logjam for fifth place in the Pac-10 with the third team being Arizona. While Oregon moves back into the bracket, today's game against the Wildcats is a must-win for the Ducks. A loss by the Wildcats moves them precariously close to the cut line, only helped by the strength of their non-conference schedule.

St. Joseph's huge win over Xavier moves them to last team in. Idle Maryland becomes the last team out. Southern Illinois was one of the last 4 teams out in this bracket, however, its loss in Arch Madness places them out of the NCAA's for good. Joining the Salukis and Terps as the last teams out were Ohio State and Syracuse who scored season-saving wins this week but still need wins over Michigan State and Marquette respectively to put them back in.

Now the rundown...


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 7, Pacific-10 - 7, Big 12 - 6, ACC - 5, SEC - 5, Big 10 - 4, Atlantic 10 - 3, Mountain West - 3, Missouri Valley - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:
Oregon, St. Joseph's, UC Santa Barbara

Teams out of the bracket:
Florida, Maryland, Cal State Northridge

Last 4 Teams In:
Massachusetts, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's

Last 4 Teams Out:
Maryland, Ohio State, Syracuse, Southern Illinois

Monday, March 3, 2008

Bracket - March 3

I'm sure by now you've read all about the weak bubble this year so I won't bore you with another recap.

The last time around, I singled out Arizona State and Ohio State as the last two teams in. So with the Sun Devils beating USC and the Buckeyes losing to Minnesota, Arizona State moves up to an 11 seed while Ohio State finds itself on the outside looking in.

(Speaking of Arizona State...why the heck does Joe Lunardi have them going to Phoenix? They're the host! They can't be in the Phoenix regional.)

Florida suffered a loss at home to Mississippi State but a team hurt even more by a home loss was Maryland, who was up by 20 over Clemson and still managed to lose by 9. Both are hanging by a thread along with the last team in, Virginia Tech. Realistically though, the Hokies probably need to sweep its last two games to have a shot of staying in the bracket.

I said I would wait until New Mexico's game with UNLV before deciding to let them in or not, but alas with the weak bubble, they get to move up all the way to an 11 seed. A loss to UNLV however will place them outside until I see their performance in the conference tourney.

Texas Tech's win over Texas placed them all the way to second team out at the time this bracket was released but tonight's 54-point loss to Kansas probably puts the kabosh on any at-large chances, depending on how the conference tourney goes.

Now the rundown:


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 7, ACC - 6, Big 12 - 6, Pac-10 - 6, SEC - 6, Big 10 - 4, Mountain West - 3, Atlantic 10 - 2, Missouri Valley - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:
American, Illinois State, NC-Asheville, New Mexico, Rider, Virginia Tech

Teams out of the bracket:
Loyola-Maryland, Navy, Ohio State, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Winthrop

Last 4 Teams In:
Massachusetts, Florida, Maryland, Virginia Tech

Last 4 Teams Out:
Southern Illinois, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ohio State

Saturday, March 1, 2008

No mas!

As stated in my own matrix principles, no new sites will be added to the Bracket Matrix. This is for a variety of reasons. It helps me plan my schedule for the important last two weeks until Selection Sunday as well as make changes to the layout if necessary. It allows readers time to properly audit sites to find out which ones actually mean something and which ones are complete losers. And finally, aren't there enough sites already?

The growth in bracket sites surprised even me. When I started this 4 years ago, I didn't think I'd outnumber the Massey Ratings comparison table. Massey currently has 41 active computer rankings. When I started on that Geocities site in 2005 that was overwhelmed every day, there were only 14 sites tracked on the old "comparing the projected seeds". Then, there were 23 in 2006 and 30 in 2007. Now look, 50 sites active, 55 total.

Now, exceptions will be made to those sites that were featured in the year-end matrices for 2006 and 2007. They can still be added this year. Otherwise, lemme know about your site and I'll be sure to add it to next year's matrix, if I'm still standing.

Until then, onward to Selection Sunday!

Update: Court Visions added as an exception, bringing the number of brackets to 56. This bracket was supposed to be included last year.

Bracket - February 29

Hey, if my site is mentioned on the Big Ten Network but nobody can get it, was it even mentioned at all?

On Wednesday, the Bracket Project passed 500,000 hits in its 4-year history so thank you.

For this bracket update, we look to the bubble where an ever-increasing amount of teams are making their case for an at-large bid.

With losses to top-notch teams, Arizona State and Ohio State move to the last two teams in. The Sun Devils have wins over Xavier and Arizona twice, but its RPI of 74 is troublesome as well as its 7-8 conference record. Its game vs. Oregon next week figures to eliminate one team from consideration. The Buckeyes have no wins of significance. Sure they're 8-7 in conference, but its best conference win was against Minnesota. With the schedule finishing up at home against Purdue and Michigan State, there is no room for error.

Maryland moves back into the bracket with its win over Wake Forest, which moves out. Also moving in is Kentucky, where a 10-3 SEC conference record can't be denied. It'll be interesting to see if they can stay afloat without Patrick Patterson on the court. Nobody else really passed the eye test, so Syracuse moves back in after not playing this week.

New Mexico is on the doorstep but needs to beat UNLV to get at least one top 50 win on its resume.

Now the rundown:


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, Pacific-10 - 6, SEC - 6, ACC - 5, Big 10 - 5, Atlantic 10 - 2, Missouri Valley - 2, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:
Kentucky, Loyola-Maryland, Maryland, Navy, Syracuse

Teams out of the bracket:
American, Niagara, St. Joseph's, Villanova, Wake Forest

Last 4 Teams In:
Kentucky, Maryland, Arizona State, Ohio State

Last 4 Teams Out:
Illinois State, New Mexico, Oregon, Western Kentucky

Monday, February 25, 2008

Bracket - February 25

The demise of the bubble teams continues. The list is really long with only 3 weeks to go until Selection Sunday. Undeserving any other year, teams like Ohio State, Florida, and Wake Forest hang on to the bracket. New Mexico is building a good resume, but I'm waiting to see how it does against BYU and UNLV before passing judgment.

BracketBuster weekend was really good for the Missouri Valley with its 5 top teams all winning. It's set up a great battle between Southern Illinois, Creighton, and Illinois State which are all hovering around the bubble with the Salukis actually making it in this time.

Oregon and Arizona State switch spots in and out of the bracket with the Sun Devils picking up an important road win over Washington. Oregon has lost 3 straight, albeit to Wazzu, UCLA, and USC.

Maryland's losses to Virginia Tech and Miami really hurt. Their non-conference performance isn't anything to write home about, their RPI is in the iffy range and the goodwill they gained from beating UNC a month ago is pretty much gone. Their game against Wake Forest looms large.

I would write about the resurgence of Villanova but they lost after the bracket was published, so depending on the remaining games until Friday, they might not be in the bracket for long.

Remember when people were predicting the Atlantic 10 would get 5 teams into the NCAA's? Wouldn't it be crazy if they managed to get only one? Xavier's the only sure bet. St. Joseph's and Massachusetts are just inside the bubble and in the bracket while Dayton and Rhode Island are just outside.

And now the rundown...


Multi-bid Conferences:
Big East - 8, Pac-10 - 6, Big 12 - 6, Big 10 - 5, SEC - 5, ACC - 5, Atlantic 10 - 3, Missouri Valley - 2, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:
Arizona State, Morgan State, Southern Illinois, St. Joseph's, Wake Forest, Villanova

Teams out of the bracket:
Maryland, Mississippi, Norfolk State, Oregon, Rhode Island, Syracuse

Last 4 Teams In:
Massachusetts, Villanova, Wake Forest, Florida

Last 4 Teams Out:
New Mexico, Illinois State, Oregon, Syracuse

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Bracket - February 22

The way they're losing, Duke must think it's a bubble team. With losses to Wake Forest and Miami in consecutive games, the Blue Devils are out of the #1 seed. Who to replace them? There are three candidates: Kansas, Texas, and UCLA. Well, Texas beat Kansas and UCLA, as well as Tennessee. For now, they are the last #1 seed.

The aforementioned Miami win propels them into the bracket. Wins by Mississippi and Massachusetts stabilized their at-large hopes. They were put into the bracket by mind-boggling losses by St. Joseph's and Dayton to La Salle.

Maryland is the last team in. It's pretty much lost all of the capital gained from beating UNC on the road a month ago. That makes today's Maryland-Miami game so huge.

Now the rundown...


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, Pac-10 - 6, SEC - 6, ACC - 5, Big 10 - 5, Atlantic 10 - 3, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:
Florida, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Mississippi, Niagara

Teams out of the bracket:
Dayton, Houston, Rider, St. Joseph's, Western Kentucky

Last 4 Teams In:
Rhode Island, Syracuse, Florida, Maryland

Last 4 Teams Out:
St. Joseph's, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Texas Tech

Monday, February 18, 2008

Bracket - February 18

More turmoil in the bubble ranks. Say goodbye to two SEC teams (Florida and Mississippi) and Arizona State and welcome back Dayton, South Alabama and Syracuse.

Florida and Mississippi were winless this past week in conference play. With the Gators lacking even a semi-decent non-conference showing and Ole Miss 3-7 in the SEC, both need plenty of help. The Sun Devils continue the hot and cold streak of fellow Pac-10 bubble teams Oregon and Cal. After beating Stanford, Arizona State lost to Cal. The game wasn't as close as the score suggests...the Sun Devils scored 7 3-pointers in the last minute.

Syracuse earned its way back in with a big win over Georgetown. Dayton and South Alabama more or less backed their way in due to the lack of convincing wins by any other bubble teams. Houston is the last team in with a home win against SMU hurting their computer numbers over the weekend.


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, Pac-10 - 6, Big 10 - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, SEC - 4, CUSA - 2, Mountain West - 2, Sun Belt - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:

Boise State, Dayton, Norfolk State, South Alabama, Syracuse, Winthrop

Teams out of the bracket:

Arizona State, Florida, Mississippi, Morgan State, NC-Asheville, Utah State

Last 4 Teams In:

Maryland, Ohio State, South Alabama, Houston

Last 4 Teams Out:

Miami (FL), New Mexico, Arizona State, Massachusetts

Friday, February 15, 2008

Bracket - February 15

It wasn't a good week to be a bubble team as most teams in that category fell flat on their faces. Just take a look at Syracuse, which lost to former cellar-dweller South Florida. Or how about Dayton, which lost to Duquesne and former cellar-dweller George Washington in its last two games. Massachusetts lost in a nationally televised game at home to Fordham. Florida lost at home to last-place LSU, still recovering from the departure of its head coach. With all these losses, Creighton stood an excellent shot at getting into the bracket, but it lost to last-place Evansville.

All of these teams are not in this bracket except for Florida, which is the last team in. The new teams in the bracket are Arizona State and Houston. (These two teams needed to switch spots in the bracket to conform to the bracket principles.) The Sun Devils followed up a road win at Arizona with a home win against Stanford, and Houston. Even though they lost to Memphis, the Cougars lack something the teams in the first paragraph have: a bad loss. However, since Houston doesn't have a marquee game remaining unless it meets Memphis for a third time in the conference tourney, they are susceptible to a bubble team rising above them.

Also, BYU switched with Rhode Island so that BYU could avoid a possible game on Sunday.


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 7, Pac-10 - 7, Big 12 - 6, SEC - 6, Big 10 - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 3, CUSA - 2, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New teams in the bracket:
Arizona State, Cal State Northridge, Houston, Robert Morris, Western Kentucky

Teams out of the bracket:
Dayton, Pacific, Sacred Heart, South Alabama, Syracuse

Last 4 teams in:
St. Joseph's, Maryland, Houston, Florida

Last 4 teams out:
Miami (FL), Dayton, New Mexico, Illinois State

Monday, February 11, 2008

Bracket - February 11

Anyone watch that Washington-UCLA game? That Husky should be ashamed for throwing the ball that hard at that UCLA player's face. Not only that, doesn't that deserve a technical or something?

The UCLA loss promptly moves them out of the 1 line and in comes Tennessee with its top ranking in the RPI. Stanford has quietly won 7 straight in the toughest conference in the land to move into the 2 line alongside the Bruins. The big mover was Purdue with its huge road win over Wisconsin. They can't let down yet however with the Spartans of Michigan State coming to town tomorrow.

Oregon's win over Cal allowed the Ducks to take Cal's place in the bracket.


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, Pac-10 - 6, SEC - 6, Big 10 - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New to this bracket:
Oregon, American

Out of this bracket:
California, Lafayette

Last 4 Teams In:
Mississippi State, St. Joseph's, Maryland, Syracuse

Last 4 Teams Out:
Creighton, Massachusetts, Miami (FLA.), Arizona State

Friday, February 8, 2008

Bracket - February 8


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, Pacific-10 - 6, SEC - 6, Big 10 - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New to this week's bracket:
Belmont, California, Maryland, Pacific

Out of this week's bracket:
CSU-Northridge, Jacksonville, Miami (FLA), Oregon

Last 4 Teams In:
Mississippi State, Syracuse, Maryland, California

Last 4 Teams Out:
Massachusetts, Illinois State, Creighton, Oregon

Thursday, February 7, 2008

As mentioned by Joe Lunardi earlier this week, the NCAA has invited sportswriters and TV journalists from around the country to try their hand at making a mock bracket for the NCAA tournament. This time, two brackets will be produced (one from the print media and the other from TV and the web). Hey, when will the NCAA invite the people from the matrix to do this? It sounds like fun. All the insights gained from these two days of deliberations can be found at the official NCAA blog, NCAA Double-A-Zone.

February Madness - Day 1
February Madness - Day 2

Monday, February 4, 2008

Bracket - February 4

This week, I'll begin doing brackets twice a week on Mondays and Fridays.


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, Pacific-10 - 6, SEC - 6, Big 10 - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New to this week's bracket:
UMBC, Morgan State, Oregon, Portland State, Rider, Sacred Heart

Out of this week's bracket:
Binghamton, Hampton, Illinois State, Marist, Northern Arizona, Wagner

Last 4 Teams In:
BYU, Miami (Fla.), Oregon, Mississippi State

Last 4 Teams Out:
Massachusetts, Illinois State, Creighton, California

Monday, January 28, 2008

Florida has been criticized this year for its soft non-conference schedule, losing both of its marquee games to Florida State and Ohio State. However, its run through the SEC schedule highlighted by a beatdown of Vanderbilt pushes the Gators to a 6-seed. Among other movers up were UConn with its road win over Indiana after a shaky start to its conference schedule, Mississippi State, who took care of their rival Ole Miss, and Purdue, who have run out to a 6-1 start in the Big Ten with its only loss to Michigan State by 3 points.

Three teams that looked good but had weak computer numbers suffered losses that hurt their seed tremendously or even knocked them out. Dayton has lost 3 straight with its last one against Richmond most troubling. They still have a RPI of 17 but suddenly need to win in a conference where 7 teams are fighting for 3-4 spots in the field. Arizona State has also lost 3 straight, including the last two at home against the Washington schools. They have been knocked out of the bracket as well as Villanova, with losses to Rutgers and Notre Dame.

Bracket - January 28


Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 8, Big 12 - 6, SEC - 6, Big 10 - 5, Pac-10 - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, Missouri Valley - 2, Mountain West - 2, West Coast - 2

New to this week's bracket:
Binghamton, BYU, Kent State, Lamar, Marist, Mississippi State, Purdue, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, UNLV, Wagner

Out of this week's bracket:
Akron, Arizona State, UMBC, Massachusetts, Oregon, Providence, Quinnipiac, San Diego State, Siena, Stephen F. Austin, Villanova

Last 4 Teams In:
St. Joseph's, Illinois State, BYU, Syracuse

Last 4 Teams Out:
Massachusetts, Oregon, Creighton, Duquesne

Monday, January 21, 2008

I leave for two days and look what happens...upsets galore. UNC and UCLA falls to Maryland and USC respectively. The fact that this occurred on their home courts really hurts as they drop from their cushy #1 seed confines. In their place are Tennessee and Duke, both of which managed to take care of business against Ohio State and Clemson respectively.

Trying to figure out the Big East is about to get more complicated if the Bearcats of Cincinnati continue their hot streak. A seven-loss non-conference start prevents them from even being considered for the NIT, but if they continue to beat the likes of Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova, and Pittsburgh, they could be a solid NIT team or even a NCAA bubble team. That would be an amazing accomplishment coming off a 2-14 Big East record last year.

Arkansas was the last team in, beating out Mississippi State. The Razorbacks have dropped their last two against middle-of-the-pack SEC competition but still have a slightly better resume. California and Florida State dropped out completely. The Golden Bears got swept at home against the Arizona schools and in the Pac-10, getting swept at home against anybody is something you can't afford to let happen. The Seminoles are riding a 3-game losing streak with the latest to Wake Forest.

Florida State joins 6 other ACC teams in my NIT bracket. It probably won't happen at the end of the season, but with nobody distinguishing themselves from the pack except powerhouses Duke and UNC, it might be tough for the ACC to get at least 5 into the field this year.

Bracket - January 21

Multi-bid Conferences:
Big East - 9, Pacific-10 - 7, Big 12 - 6, SEC - 5, ACC - 4, Atlantic 10 - 4, Big Ten - 4, Missouri Valley - 2, West Coast - 2

New to this week's bracket:
Akron, Alabama State, Davidson, Kansas State, UMBC, Oral Roberts, Providence, Quinnipiac, Siena, Stephen F. Austin, USC, Virginia Commonwealth

Out of this week's bracket:
Arkansas-Pine Bluff, California, Chattanooga, Delaware, Florida State, Hartford, IUPUI, Kent State, McNeese State, Niagara, Syracuse, Wagner

Last 4 Teams In:
Louisville, Providence, Florida, Arkansas

Last 4 Teams Out:
Creighton, Kent State, Syracuse, UNLV

This week's bracket in *.pdf form

Thursday, January 17, 2008

I will be in Lake Tahoe for the weekend so expect the next update to the matrix sometime Sunday. The next bracket will be released on Monday, its normal day.
James Worthy. NCAA Champion. 3-Time NBA Champion. NBA Hall-of-Famer. Bracketologist?

I was alerted by a reader that he had his own bracket projection at cbs2.com, where he works as a basketball analyst for the L.A. CBS/KCAL stations there. How good is he? You be the judge as he has been added to the matrix.

Monday, January 14, 2008

New to this week's bracket:
Austin Peay, Florida, Hartford, Illinois State, Jacksonville, Lafayette, Louisville, McNeese State, NC-Asheville, Northern Arizona, San Diego State, Utah State

Out of this week's bracket:
Boston University, East Tennessee State, High Point, Holy Cross, Montana State, Nevada, New Mexico, Providence, Sam Houston State, Southeast Missouri State, UNLV, Virginia

Multi-bid conferences:
Big East - 9, Pac-10 - 7, ACC - 5, Big 12 - 5, SEC - 5, Atlantic 10 - 4, Big 10 - 4, Missouri Valley - 2, West Coast - 2

The Mountain West and ACC gave up spots to the SEC and Missouri Valley this week. The MWC really took a beating with losses by San Diego State (Northern Colorado), BYU (Wake Forest), UNLV (Air Force), and New Mexico (San Diego State). Losses to Xavier and Duke are respectable for Virginia, but still puts them on the other side of the cut line. To fill in, we have the Florida Gators, who haven't played a good non-conference schedule, but did win their first two conference games and look to only become stronger in a weak SEC. Illinois State joins surprising Drake in the bracket.

To view this week's bracket in pdf form, click here.

Monday, January 7, 2008

The bracket for January 7 has been updated.

New additions: Arizona State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, CSU-Northridge, Chattanooga, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana State, New Mexico, Oregon, South Alabama

Dropped out: Creighton, George Mason, Georgia Southern, Jackson State, Montana, New Orleans, San Diego State, UC Santa Barbara, USC, Valparaiso

UCLA takes over the 4th #1 seed from Washington State after two very convincing wins on the road over Stanford and Cal. The overall strength of the Pac-10 nets them 7 teams in this bracket with USC the last team out after two losses to Stanford and Cal. The only conference with more teams is the Big East with 9. No one is standing out from the pack in this conference but parity rules.

The rest: ACC-6, Big 12-5, Atlantic 10-4, Big 10-4, SEC-4, Mountain West-2, West Coast-2.

This week's bracket is on the main site and at http://bracketproject.atspace.com/010708.pdf

Starting next week, the NIT bracket will be produced.