The Bracket Project Predictions - 2010

My full bracket predictions will be released Wednesday.

In the meantime, I'll say Winthrop over Arkansas-Pine Bluff tonight in the opening round game.

UPDATE: 0 for 1. That's not good. Okay, here are my final predictions.

This sure smells chalky.



FIRST ROUND UPDATE: 25 out of 32 correct. (96.6 percentile according to ESPN.) Only lost Georgetown for the Sweet 16.

SECOND ROUND UPDATE: ESPN says I'm at the 97.7 percentile but when you lose your predicted national champion Kansas, you're pretty much done. My Midwest is shot but the rest of the elite 8 can still happen.

The Bracket Matrix Results - 2010

The scoring is complete and the winners of this year's bracket challenge are Bracketville, Bracket Madness, and Eric Prisbell of the Washington Post. All three tied with a Paymon score of 322.

Shawn Siegel at College Hoops Net seeded the most teams correctly with 36. Bracketville seeded the most teams within one seed line at 61.

The average score was a little bit north of 303. Joe Lunardi and his team of bracketologists got a score of 300.

Find all the results here.

The rankings page has also been updated for 2010.

Final Bracket - 2010

Here it is. Let's see how wrong I am.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/2010FINAL.pdf

Bracket - March 13

The newest bracket is posted on the main page. Tomorrow, the bracket gets blown up and I'll start fresh. The final bracket will be posted sometime during the Big Ten championship game.

Bracket - March 12

No time for a bracket today. Here's my latest update. A full bracket will be released tomorrow morning.

1. Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky
2. West Virginia, Kansas State, Purdue, Ohio State
3. Villanova, Baylor, Wisconsin, New Mexico
4. Georgetown, BYU, Maryland, Pittsburgh
5. Temple, Tennessee, Michigan State, Vanderbilt
6. Texas A&M, Xavier, Butler, Texas
7. Northern Iowa, Florida State, Gonzaga, California
8. Marquette, Missouri, Richmond, Clemson
9. Utah State, Oklahoma State, UTEP, St. Mary's (CA)
10. Wake Forest, Old Dominion, Notre Dame, Louisville
11. Florida, UNLV, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
12. Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington, Siena
13. Cornell, Rhode Island, Wofford, Murray State
14. Akron, Montana, Sam Houston State, Oakland
15. UCSB, Morgan State, Vermont, North Texas
16. E. Tenn. State, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Schedule up to Selection Sunday

Because of work and personal commitments, updates will be sporadic up to Selection Sunday. Friday's really busy, so there will only be one matrix update tomorrow. Here's a schedule of things to come (all times Pacific):

Thursday night: Matrix updates as needed

Friday by 11:00 AM: Updated NCAA and NIT bracket
Friday by 6:00 PM: The only matrix update of the day

Saturday by 10:30 AM: Updated NCAA and NIT bracket
Saturday all day: Matrix updates as needed

Sunday all day: Matrix updates as needed
Sunday @ 2:30 PM: Final NCAA bracket is released
Sunday @ 2:55 PM: Last matrix update

Sunday @ 3:00 PM: NCAA Selection Show on CBS

Sunday @ 5:00 PM: Final NIT bracket is released

Sunday night: Final matrix is released with results

My team can't make it to the CBI or the CIT??? Say it ain't so!

A few people are reading my NIT page and are wondering why their team isn't even listed in the CBI/CIT section. While I feel the 32 teams I list are the most deserving (quite honestly, I'm mostly looking at computer rankings and RPI by the time I get to team #129), there's still a chance your team could be selected. Take a look at who was invited in 2009 by RPI ranking.

CBI:

71. Wisconsin-Green Bay
83. Nevada
85. UTEP
86. Houston
89. Northeastern
90. Buffalo
97. Vermont
100. Wyoming
102. College of Charleston
106. Stanford
110. Boise State
129. Richmond
131. Troy
150. St. John's
154. Oregon State
158. Wichita State

CIT:

95. Evansville
98. Bradley
103. Old Dominion
118. Mount St. Mary's
120. Portland
122. Oakland
124. Belmont
125. Rider
135. Idaho
137. Kent State
138. James Madison
143. Austin Peay
147. Pacific
151. Liberty
163. Drake
175. The Citadel

175! They only invite 129 teams total to the 4 tournaments!

The CBI and CIT are in it to fill their at-large bids and make money, not to find what teams are most deserving. So if your favorite team had a winning record or did okay in a BCS conference, you're going to get consideration.

Bracket - March 8

Only one addition to the bracket this week as Memphis moves up to the bracket and Rhode Island moves out. It's Championship Week, so this bracket will change drastically come Friday. New brackets will come out Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon.

In the meantime, the Bracket Matrix will be updated twice a day and anytime a change to the National Bracket is required due to the conference tournaments.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030810.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030810.pdf

Bracket - March 5

Congrats to Cornell for clinching the Ivy League championship and the automatic bid to the NCAAs. 4 more automatic bids will be claimed this weekend in the following conferences:

Saturday
Atlantic Sun (Mercer or East Tennessee State)
Big South (Coastal Carolina or Winthrop)
Ohio Valley (Murray State or Morehead State)

Sunday
Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Illinois Sate, or Bradley)

As for today's bracket, Notre Dame's win over UConn meant they switched places on the bracket as the Irish are the last team in while UConn's back outside. The Huskies can't get in with a 7-10 Big East record and certainly can't with a 7-11 record if they lose to USF. Notre Dame's place is not assured, but a win over Marquette would provide a lot of breathing room.

Mississippi State looked awfully shaky against Auburn and fall back while their rival Ole Miss move into the bracket on the heels of a 3-game winning streak.

Two other teams also lost key games this week to fall out of the bracket: UAB lost to Memphis and fell to 3rd in the CUSA. Illinois fell to Ohio State, which is a respectable loss, but their RPI is now 73 and their record against Big Ten teams above them in the standings is 2-5. They are the first team out.

To replace them, Washington has won 8 of 10 and has a win over conference leader California, something Arizona State doesn't have, and Rhode Island, which was helped not only by their win over Charlotte but also by the loss by Dayton.

In NIT land, Jacksonville clinched the NIT auto bid for the Atlantic Sun after advancing furthest in the tourney but falling to Mercer in the semifinals.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030510.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030510.pdf

Lipscomb Loses; May Head to NIT

In the Atlantic Sun tournament today, Kennesaw State beat Lipscomb, which was the #1 seed. As a result, Lipscomb receives an automatic bid to the NIT, thus taking away a spot from an at-large team. Based on Monday's S-Curve, that team would be St. Louis.

The only other game to watch out for today, in terms of NIT implications, is Lehigh's game against Army in the Patriot League tournament.

UPDATE: According to this article, the Atlantic Sun changed its tiebreaker rule for the NIT bid. It now states that the regular-season champion who advances furthest in the A-Sun tournament will get the NIT automatic bid. So Lipscomb won't go to the NIT, leaving Belmont, Jacksonville, and Campbell still in the running provided they don't win the A-Sun tournament. (The tournament champion, of course, goes to the NCAA tournament.)

2ND UPDATE: Belmont and Campbell both lost today, making Jacksonville the recipient of the automatic NIT bid should it not win the conference tournament.

3RD UPDATE: According to the director of athletics at Lipscomb, the Bisons would receive the automatic NIT bid should Jacksonville win the conference tournament.

Bracket - March 1

The only change in terms of teams in this bracket is Mississippi State went in and Rhode Island went out. Mississippi State is in the midst of a three-game winning streak and currently on top of the SEC West. Rhode Island suffered a loss to St. Bonaventure and now the Atlantic 10 is down to 3 teams. However, Dayton is on the doorstep to get right back in with its remaining games against Richmond and St. Louis.

I seriously considered putting Notre Dame in the bracket. They just won against Pittsburgh and at Georgetown but that was after a 3-game losing streak, falling to St. John's, Seton Hall, and Louisville. In the end, I left them as last 8 out. A huge bubble game awaits on Wednesday against Connecticut. Winner is in the bracket.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/030110.pdf

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/PDFS/NIT030110.pdf